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Analysis of An Absence of Governance & Multilateral Cooperation in Combating Environmental Degradation
– A Review of the Lake Chad Basin Development (LCBDC) & The Nile River Basin (NRB) Countries
By Olusegun Ehinfun, MBA PhD. Candidate and Paul R. Sachs, PhD, MBA
Summary:
Balancing national interest, regional collaboration and economic sustainability will be even more important in a world where climate change affects the distribution of key resources such as water. Leaders must be proactive in managing this balance to address both planned and unplanned changes.
Abstract
The perennial flooding that impacts countries and communities within the Lake Chad Basin Development Areas (LCBDC) has increased in recent years due to climate change. Its negative impact on the communities is further accentuated by the absence of multinational and cross regional cooperation, specifically the flood management strategies between the governments of Nigeria and Cameroon. As a result, the affected communities have seen an increase in divisiveness, despair and reduced economic sustainability. Furthermore, these factors foster the growth of extreme and violent fringe groups.
Likewise the disputes and political tension between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt over the waters of the River Nile, have intensified since 2011. In July 2022, after Ethiopia commenced the third-stage filling operations of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Egypt and Sudan bristled over the stalled tripartite negotiations. While each country is entitled to take actions to support its citizenry, if the broader region is destabilized such support will not be sustainable.
Balancing national initiatives with a socio-economic perspective in large, trans-national regions will be increasingly important due to climate change. Cross-regional cooperation, with fundamentally similar development aspirations and approaches, can lead to better outcomes for local communities, for nation-states and geopolitical regions. It can be argued that improved outcomes also support more stable political institutions which further help the populace.Using these examples as context, the paper will present key factors for leaders to consider when confronting regional environmental decisions – either planned or unplanned.
Introduction
Managing natural resources has always been a fundamental responsibility of governance. Nation states and business enterprises must know what their resources are, how to access these resources, assure the distribution of resources to meet the needs of the populace or customers, and monitor the usage of resources. Some natural resources, such as minerals, are not subject to change in distribution across the world, or across a given nation state. Others, water in particular, are affected by climate. Climate can alter the distribution of water and its ease of access across man-made national boundaries. Therefore, water resources can have a significant impact on the functioning of a given country or business enterprise.It is increasingly accepted that the world is amidst a man-made climate change period. Even if one takes the position of climate change skeptics that such changes are over-stated, management of natural resources remains a fundamental activity of governance. Moreover, in the case of water resources, the fact that these resources are not stationary and are affected by changes in climate, whether naturally occurring or man-made, means that water management presents unique governance challenges, in particular water resource management requires collaboration across a watershed area, rather than a national boundary. The watershed area may encompass areas in several nation states.
Challenges of Multinational Cooperation and how they handle transboundary issues:
The fact that water resources often do not nicely fit into national boundaries creates a challenge for multinational cooperation to manage the resources. As each nation state has a unique history and culture, each view of the resource and how to manage it may differ. Developing a collaborative strategy for managing a water resource requires recognizing the interconnections between nation, negotiation and compromise. Clarke-Santher et.al (2017) refer to a shift1 in the ‘geopolitics of the anthropocene’ (Dalby, 2007).2 Crutzen (2002) conceptualized that we live in an era in which the ‘global environmental system’ is not only dominated but also impacted by humans.3 This notion is also espoused by Lorimer’s belief and conceptualisation that the ‘Anthropocene is an epistemological divergence; nature can no longer be viewed as separate from humanity.”4 However, the way and manner various global water crises unfold in the Anthropocene is clearly encapsulated in the example of the perennial flooding that impacts the Lake Chad Basin Development Countries (LCBDC). The impact can be put down historically to an absence of multinational and cross disciplinary cooperation over the years between governments in Nigeria and Cameroon. For example, the annual exercise occasioned by the opening of the reservoir from the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon, and the inability of the Nigerian government(s) to complete the Dasin Hausa Dam,5 previously agreed upon in bilateral agreements, impacted communities within Cameroon and communities in the bordering central plains in Nigeria – along the banks of the Rivers Niger and Benue.
The dissonance of policy inertia on this issue is not only underlined by the issue of identity, but rather underlined the divisiveness, angst and despair faced by affected communities. The flooding in 2022, which is explained by climate change due to unseasonal rainfall, is the worst since 2012 according to the National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA).6 An absence of political will to solve such issues in a sustainable manner is at the root of this challenge. Especially those arising from the absence of follow through on the 1983 Memorandum of Understanding (MOUs) between the governments of Nigeria and Cameroon. This belies the opportunities for national cooperation and cross-regional/international consensus on ameliorating the conditions brought on by climate change. It is not just the Lagdo dam from Cameroon that led to fatal consequences during the flooding in 2002, the precipitation and overflowing of other inland dams (Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro) also contributed to the natural disasters (Omorogbe P., 2022).7 Analogous to the disagreement between two riparian nations (Nigeria and Cameroon) of the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) are the disputes over the waters of the River Nile, between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt since 2011. In July 2022, after Ethiopia commenced the third-stage filling operations of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Egypt and Sudan bristled over the stalled tripartite negotiations. According to an article published by Asharq al-Awsat newspaper July 12, the third stage will likely “raise more tensions with the downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan), despite expectations of limited harm at the current stage in light of high rainfall rates in the upstream countries.” Gamal Bayoumi, Egypt’s former assistant minister of foreign affairs, told Al-Monitor, “Egypt is exerting diplomatic pressure by all available means to resume tripartite negotiations on the GERD, preserve its historical rights to the Nile waters and expose Ethiopia’s intransigence in refusing a binding agreement on a mechanism for filling and managing the dam.”8
Arguably, Ethiopia is within its rights to develop its economy by undertaking to build a dam on the tributaries of the Blue Nile River, which are within the country’s borders. Such a project can foster economic development in various sectors of its economy: fisheries, agriculture, electricity generation, flood management and water management. However, the impact of the dam is not limited to the national borders of Ethiopia. Peaceful or collaborative relationships with neighboring nations is a national priority along with the economic development of Ethiopia. Therefore, the larger view of the planning and building of the dam ought to consider the regional implications of it. Thus, just as there is a ‘shift in the geopolitics of the Anthropocene’ the building of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) represents a shift in the regional hydro politics and international relations dynamics in the Nile River Basin (NRB) riparian nation-states. This change could present an opportunity for cooperation rather than conflict (Cascão and Nicol, 2016)9 Whether conflict or cooperation will depend on how the triumvirate (Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia) governments view the situation. There is a history of cooperation in the NRB. In building a dam on the tributaries of the Blue Nile, Ethiopia is only doing what Egypt did in a similar fashion when it built the Aswan High Dam (AHD). That project, however, was entirely within the boundaries of Egypt.
The GERD presents an opportunity for cross-regional/international cooperation similar to the Nigeria-Cameroon Lagdo Dam project. The best outcomes will be reached when proactive measures and policies are implemented prior to commencement of huge infrastructural and regional public works projects. In 2019 and 2020, in order to head off the potential possibility of conflicts and wars over the construction of the dam, the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, organised a mediation conference between the foreign ministers of Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan in Washington DC.10 & 11 It is incumbent on the International Community, the African Union (AU), the US and Europe to find an amicable and mutually beneficial solution to the crisis, as Ethiopia rejected the final version of the Renaissance Dam Agreement on February 20, 2012.12 Already, there have been minor border skirmishes between Sudanese And Ethiopian armed forces in the Al-Fashaqa region in Eastern Sudan – Ethiopia border region. “The quarrel over Al-Fashaqa, which lies within Sudan’s international boundaries but has been settled by Ethiopian farmers for decades, has escalated in recent years alongside a diplomatic spat over Ethiopia’s construction of a hydropower dam.13
Balance National interests and Regional Collaboration in Governance
The regional collaboration approach presents a particular challenge to a given nation because its leadership, however the leadership was selected, seeks to represent its national interests. Water resource management, however, requires regional cooperation. Such cooperation may lead to decisions that compromise national interest and goals for the larger regional benefit (which indirectly does benefit a given national interest). Such a unique leadership challenge requires unique leadership skills, which may not be evident or selected for in the process of a country’s choice of leader. In practical terms, various governments have distinct governance systems that could present unique governance challenges either in bilateral, trilateral or multilateral transboundary interactions, engagements and negotiations. One of which is internal domestic politics such as an imperative for industrialization and development, community, societal pressures and influence by internal power brokers or policy entrepreneurs and other epistemic communities; ‘civil society, international donors, private sectors groups’ et. al. (Suhardiman and Giordano, 201214 ; Zawahri and Hensengerth, 2012).15 This is in addition to the elemental/basic instrumentality (in terms of operationalisation of procedures) of governance. What may present a challenge is the issue of culture, culture change and potential challenges inherent in the cooperation and engagement matrix of nation-states. A viewpoint Constructivists like Naho Mirumachi (2015)16 propounded Transboundary basin management and riparian politics as being analytical in perspective and approach especially as applied to riparian states’ engagements, interactions and influence.
Regarding one of the two examples noted above, Cascão and Nicol, (2016)17 are of the view that pre-2010 there was a consensus and measure of multilateral cooperation around the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). The work was geared at attaining a common purpose and vision in the areas of investment, planning, surveys, pooling of resources for beneficial projects and causes for their respective citizenry in a ‘win-win’ scenario that may not compromise on sovereignty. This represents a Liberalism (Internationalist) school of thought (Dryzek and Dunleavy, 2009)18 that typifies an ideal in riparian international relations. However, it can be argued that Ethiopia has gone the route of the Constructivist approach (Mirumachi Naho, 2015). The constructivist approach is viewed by some scholars, diplomatic and geo-strategic policy watchers as a realist’s conception of the state’s preference and capabilities in transboundary water management. Again, we highlight Cascão and Nicol’s (2016),19 contention and analysis that the current situation in the GERD (since 2010 onwards) is more of an ‘outcome of change’ and a ‘cause for more change’ from the NBI heydays when: “ …
Against a background of past hydro political conflict and generalized mistrust between upstream and downstream riparians, the cooperation process was remarkable for its constructiveness and depth of engagement. For example, the NBI developed a detailed portfolio of investment projects with potential to deliver socioeconomic benefits in the fields of energy production and trade, agriculture, watershed management and environmental protection (Nile Basin Initiative, 2014). In the hydro politically complex Eastern Nile Basin, the three riparian states worked together towards the preparation of the ambitious Joint Multipurpose Project (JMP), which included potential development of hydraulic infrastructure in the Blue Nile Basin. This was a huge departure from existing norms, considering that Egypt was initially a full part of this process alongside Sudan and Ethiopia under the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP)…” Their theoretical analysis of national interests versus regional collaborations is largely based on the conceptions of the: Transboundary Water Interaction school by the London Water Research Group (Zeitoun & Mirumachi, 2008; Zeitoun, Mirumachi, & Warner, 2011; Zeitoun et al., 2014, 2016).17
In terms of regional collaboration and governance, the example of a proposed cooperation amongst the riparian nation-states of the LCBDC is epitomized in the BIOSPLAT project (Biosphere and Heritage of Lake Chad), promoted under the auspices of UNESCO by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation, (Campbell H.G., 2020).20 The transmutation of water, (diverted) from water-surplus areas of rivers, lakes or other bodies of water is beneficial for rivers and lakes regeneration and reclamation. The BIOSPLAT proposal presents an opportunity for cooperation within the Sahel and the LCBDC countries. It involves constructing an interbasin water transfer system, channeling water from one of the tributaries of the River Congo and transporting it over a 2,400km via a trans aqua project. It can be argued that one overarching common denominator for agreeing to this multi-year, multi-faceted and complex international project has to do with the national interest. The prospects of harnessing the benefits of the water flow for irrigation, trade, energy generation, watershed husbandry and management holds too much attraction for conflict to arise among the countries of the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) and Equatorial/ Central Africa.
Policy Leadership in Management of Environmental Externalities
What have governments done here that has been positive or effective, and not effective? Governments and nation-states within the LCBDC seem to be more proactive in policy leadership and attempts at engendering joined up thinking in their management of environmental externalities. This behavior stands in contrast to the perceived spotty cooperation which currently exists among the 11 Nile River Basin (NRB) riparian nation-states. Analyzing the structure, efforts and strategies that are effective and their shortcomings. Oftentimes, what governments and/or nation-states do in transboundary basin management is usually determined by internal dynamics of policy and policy on the domestic plane. However, under Transboundary water management governance conventions individual nation-states are independent actors who order their interactions and relationships with each other under fairly generally agreed rules of operation and terms of references (TORs); (V.Ostrom, 1972;). Polycentrism is one concept of governance some scholars believe has the ability to be efficient and effective as opposed to the existing hierarchical and networked forms of governance (Araral and Hartley, 2013). There are four requirements or conditions for this kind of governance to be workable, not unwieldy and effective according to Vincent Ostrom (1972). These are : Legal community, Constitutional rule, Market conditions, Political conditions. These four conditions may not always fit coherently as it would in many a developed country.
However, we argue that all the elements of polycentricity central to this discourse are present in the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC). Formed on the 22nd of 1964 by the four countries bordering Lake Chad (RSS Newsletter 2021). Its Executive Secretary is also the Head of Mission of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF): A joint military multinational armed forces contingent consisting of the militaries of Nigeria, Niger Republic, Chad and Cameroon. This delineates in a clear and concise manner command-and-control responsibilities and accountability. With a rotation of military commanders from each nation-state responsible for the command of the MNJTF on a rotational basis, but answerable to the civilian Head-of-Mission at the LCBC secretariat in N’Djamena in Chad Republic. The Executive Secretary/Head-Of-Mission is in turn, only, accountable to the Heads-of-State and leaders of the four nation-states of the LCBDC. This structure, we argue, ensures a fluidity and nimbleness in decision-making process in meeting the developmental needs (civilian responsibilities) of the populace and simultaneously seamlessly coordinates law and order in the affected communities of the Lake Chad Basin areas. This conforms to the essential theoretical underpinnings of Polycentrism governance (albeit at a multinational and cross-regional level) – a fundamental democratic governance architecture as advocated by (Araral and Hartley, 2013).The underlying conception and foundational principle being that “…modern societies embody institutional diversity reflected in multi‐level, multi-purpose, multi-sectoral, and multi-functional units of governance.”
This can be linked to the management of environmental externalities as much as the organisation, LCBC, can adapt to the vagaries of the modern developmental challenges bedeviling the LCBDA region. Climate externalities as a result of climate change have been negatively impacting nation-states’ body-polity, socio-economic life and security for a number of years within this region. According to Ossei Baffour Frimpong of the Wilson-Africa Center, in spite of there not been an obvious ‘mono-causal’ link of externalities as a result of climate change effectively leading to the Boko Haram Terrorism (BHT; The Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad-JAS)) insurgency, the impact in the forms of environmental degradation brought on by climate change cannot be overlooked.(Frimpong O.B., 2020)28 a,b,c,d.What governments have been unable to do in the security-challenged LCBDC region is to effectively roll-back the encroachment of the Sahara desert on the region and effectively restore the waters of the Lake Chad Basin (LCB). This is largely due to the displacements and dislocations within the area due to the conflict brought on by the BHT and its splinter groups – the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP – Wilāyat Garb Ifrīqīyā).The lake Chad Basin (LCB) is a source of support for the way of life of over 30 million West and Central Africans.29 As a consequence the absence of peace is further exacerbated by the depletion of LCB, a lifeblood of the political economy of the area. Negatively affecting their abilities to conduct artisanal fishing and farming in the various affected communities.c Attendant corresponding impact are the following externalities: widespread poverty leading to a rural-urban drift/migration; drought and denuded soil cover; water scarcity; disappearing fisheries cottage industries; unseasonal rainfall impacting planting and harvest patterns, food insecurity, a dearth of livestock economy.d
Conclusion
The present review suggests several recommendations and suggestions for further policy work.
1. Regional collaboration is going to be more important than ever with climate change, water resources being a prominent but not the only area where such collaboration will be necessary.
2. Such collaborations must include continual communication, not presuming that once an agreement is reached one can remove attention and move on to other issues.
3. As a corollary to continual communication, agreements must be continually revisited. Not only may internal socio-political factors change with time, but some studies show that climate changes will accelerate. If so, the 10 years to build a dam or another large infrastructure projects may be in response to circumstances that are no longer relevant.
4. One must consider he qualities of a person must have to lead and manage such situations. That person must have or gain the support of people to know that the leader has their best interest in mind but may need to compromise. To accomplish this the leader must be transparent in communications yet also filter communications to preserve cooperation with other nations. Research on the qualities of leaders who may best handle such situations will be valuable to leadership training and the actual implementation of regional collaboration for resource management.
Bibliography
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An Analyses of the Effects of An Absence of Governance & Community Solutions in Combating Environmental Degradation
A Case Study of the Lake Chad Basin Area (LCBA) & Niger-River Delta Basin (NRDB).
Authors: Òlúségùn Èhínfún (MBA, PhD. Candidate), and Paul R. Sachs (MBA, PhD.)
Abstract
Effective environmental management requires a coordinated effort between corporations, national stakeholders, and local communities. Such coordination can consider the different information that each party brings, structured in a manner that facilitates clear and complete communication. Using the examples of the Lake Chad and Niger Delta areas, this “model” of coordination is discussed. The successes and failures in those regions and the implications of actions taken are discussed as a guide for future environmental management.For example, environmental changes were leading to the receding of Lake Chad and subsequent impact on the economic livelihoods of persons in that region. Although this change was well-known, the governments did not show foresight in managing it. The lack of land and water management, in part, ultimately led to social and economic instability. This instability was particularly problematic because the region borders 4 countries (Chad, Niger Republic, Cameroon, Nigeria) in the Sahel. Moreover, it is one of a few contributing factors to the growth of extremism and terrorism in the region. In the Niger Delta, environmental degradation occurred due to an expansion of the oil industry, including both off and onshore prospecting, accompanying pipeline construction and destruction by disenchanted youths within host communities. Communities were disrupted and not compensated adequately. The communities’ fishing and farming activities were destroyed. Ironically, the economic development which the oil industry was trying to bring was offset by the economic losses to the local communities. This paper highlights how the reality of climate action, biodiversity/environmental management, and remediation can be integrated within sustainable social strategies by governments for corporate community relationships. Transforming development policy in least developed countries (LDCs) can, perhaps, achieve sustainable impact, spurring the adoption of joined-up governance, coupled with climate, and environmental policies. The participatory governance model being used in India is presented as one promising approach.
Introduction
According to Professor Kate Raworth of Oxford University (founder of Doughnut Economics Action Labs – DEAL), humanity is in the era of the Anthropocene. We have “become the greatest drivers of change at the scale of the earth system post World War II” when economies began to grow fueled by the availability of cheap fossil fuel with attendant growth in accompanying consumption patterns globally. Ultimately, this process has led to climate and ecological breakdowns with potential catastrophic consequences. Excessive consumption and consumerism patterns have impacted the environment adversely. Either by commission or omission, policies geared towards achieving broad-based economic development lacked the forethought of envisaging the underlying environmental externalities that result from such production and expansionist policies.(Al- Jazeera English Documentaries, January 2023).1
The question now is how policymakers can avoid further problems and reduce the negative impact of existing climate change and environmental problems (Okunola and Simatale (2023).2 It is proposed that implementation of effective environmental resource governance (ERG), management best practices and joined-up thinking among developing countries is a potential solution. This paper contends that coherent policies can be designed for such implementation. These policies require and ensure, as a sine qua non, coordinated efforts between cross regional governments with legal institutional frameworks and backing across Africa.
Why A Twin-Regional Focus?
This paper illustrates the problem and potential solutions by examining the Lake Chad and Niger Delta regions of West Africa largely because they have similar development challenges and accompanying environmental realities. They are situated geographically within some of Africa’s largest River Basin(s) Authorities (RBA) and represent two out of the eight River basins – Benue, Niger, Delta and Cross River, Osun, Imo-Anambra, Hadejia-Chad, Sokoto-Rima, Owena and Ogun basins3 – in a country with Africa’s largest population and economy. Both regions are facing erosion of their land and water resources, destruction of local fauna and flora, and either presently or historically suffer from the menace of non-state armed groups. In the Lake Chad Basin (LCB), security and environmental issues were partly aggravated and precipitated by the shrinking of Lake Chad (Serdeczny, O. et al. 2017)4 within the border areas of the Lake Chad Basin Area (LCBA) countries, with attendant soil erosions and drought extending from the outer edges of the Sahel/Sahara Desert. This area spans the length and breadth of the old Kanem – Bornu old empire. It is described as an oasis within the Sahel region, nestled on the southern edge of the Sahara Desert. It sat at the crossroads of commercial activities from the period of the rule of various El-Kanemi(s) – traditional imperial rulers of their age (Martin B.G., 1969)5.
The Niger River Delta Basin (NRDB) is a vital, at-one-time pristine biodiversity & environmental resource including sources of water, fauna & flora, forests, lakes, rivers, creeks, and coastal areas. The Nigerian state’s (mis) management of its extractive land resources (oil, gas, minerals) has had serious security, socio-economic and constitutional implications for this region and for Nigeria’s estimated 213 million people (World Bank IBRD-IDA Data: Nigeria, 2023)6. There has been alleged illegal oil bunkering by corrupt government officials in the national oil company, perhaps in concert with some parts of its security establishment. This is coupled with indiscriminate oil drilling, refining and the illegal activities of unemployed youths pilfering crude oil pipelines, which run through host communities (Igwe U.,2022)7. Ultimately selling illegal crude on the black markets, but also leading to extensive environmental and social destruction. This a consequence of having had their main sources of livelihood (artisanal fishing) – via rivers, creeks, coastal waters- damaged and despoiled by crude oil spillages from pipelines of oil majors/ multinational oil corporations (MNOCs), local communities have been devastated.
Geo-Strategic Implications
These regions are located within the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea geographical areas (Joint Development Zone JDZ exclusive economic zone)8 respectively. On a geo-strategic level, the country-focus in this paper is on Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and country by population size. The case study regions are vital development basins. The Lake Chad Basin Area (LCBA) is a regional development framework which consists of 4 neighboring countries working together via the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) in providing solutions to development challenges around transboundary water management and food security. The Niger River Delta Basin (NRDB) spans 6 states within Nigeria with massive oil and gas reserves, but also rich fauna and flora, biodiversity, and natural habitat. The Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) administers development programs and solutions for the peoples of the South – Southern region of Nigeria- where most of the oil and gas resources that funds the Nigerian state is derived from. The importance and implications of the LCBA and NRDB are particularly strong due to their socioeconomic development potential. The regions highlight governance challenges in terms of balancing environmental and security challenges in West Africa, the Sahel, and Equatorial/Central Africa. Furthermore, the regions illustrate how transboundary Issues and environmental issues interplay in their impact on economic and political development.
Environmental Impact
Background & Context
There exists a political impasse akin to a frozen conflict in both the Lake Chad Basin Development Area (LCBA) and Niger River Delta Basin regions (NRDB). This paper argues that coordinated efforts between government, corporations, local communities and other stakeholders are key to ameliorating socio-economic challenges, poverty and privations within the transboundary communities embodied by these regions. Lake Chad and Niger Delta oil-endowed settlements have had their fauna and flora despoiled by natural and man-made environmental degradation. Ultimately, these are the visible consequences of the dearth of effective environmental management practices by the authorities within both regions. The sources of livelihood in both regions, in the forms of artisanal fishing and farming, have been largely destroyed by a mixture of water erosion and land degradation around the Lake Chad Basin Areas (LCBA), Bdliya H.H. and Bloxom M., 2013).9 On the other hand, there exists long-lasting impacts due to a combination of activities of crude oil multinational corporations (MNCs), displaced fishermen, farmers and unemployed youth who turn into crude oil profiteers damaging oil pipelines to extract oil for sale on the ‘black market’ (Yusuf, K. 2022).10 Ironically, the mix of economic development and environmental deterioration has not in any way decreased nor has it increased the well-being of the local communities. In doing so, the changes have fueled the rise of terrorism which then has become a constant undercurrent of instability in the regions.
Lake Chad Basin Area (LCBA)
The Lake Chad Basin Area is a geographically low point in the Sahel region. The lake is fed by various rivers and a critical water source amid the dry Sahel region. It is strategically located at a crossroads of the borders of Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger Republic. Since 2009 (Ekhomu, O., 2019),11 severe community displacements resulted from the Boko Haram (The Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad-JAS) insurgency, ultimately disrupting the social, economic and geo-political balance of the region.This terrorism entity which later splintered with one arm metamorphosing into the Islamic State in West Africa Province -ISWAP (Wilāyat Garb Ifrīqīyā) has been the bane of existence for agrarian and fisherfolk communities in the 4 countries around the Lake Chad Basin area (LCBA).12
Niger-River Delta Basin (NRDB)
The Niger River Delta Basin comprises several regions in southern Nigeria. It has historically been an area of varied economic activity and, as a result, is a densely populated area. Petroleum processing began in the region in the 1950s and the area has since developed extensively with the industry making Nigeria a chief oil producer for the world. Catastrophic crude oil spillages in and around the 9 states of the oil polluted riverine areas of the Niger-River Delta Basin (NRDB) have occurred. Compounding these problems is the absence of effective participatory governance and an implementation of oil and gas resource devolution (sharing) arguments with the community. Militant restiveness that has developed can be seen as a by-product of this mismanagement within the NRDB. Knowing that they produce most of the foreign exchange income for the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN), communities in the NRDB understandably dissatisfied with the operations of the oil majors/MNCs, who are in Joint-Venture (JV) partnerships on oil and gas exploration that has impacted negatively on their environment via oil spillages and gas flaring, without attendant sustainable job opportunities with deep connections to their communities.
Since the discovery of oil in 1956, with production in commercial quantities commencing via Shell in 1958 at Oloibiri (Oshwofasa, Anuta & Aiyedogbon J.O., 2012),13 within present-day Rivers State, oil despoliation has been the bane of existence of the peoples of the NRDB. Instances of oil spillage have occurred at Oloibiri, Ogoni, Bonga, and most recently in 2022 within Nembe areas of South-Southern Nigeria.14 Access to freshwater for communities has been restricted or cut off entirely. Arable farmland for artisanal farmers and fishing waters for fishermen have been destroyed. Consequently, this has negatively impacted the communities in terms of political, socio-economic, and cultural dynamics that underpins these challenges, most notably in the area of resource ownership/control (including water rights and oil/land derivation policies) and how community solutions could be engendered.
Effective Environmental Management
The communities that suffer disproportionately from development challenges, including pressing ones like those brought on by climate change, need the state, responsive governments, and institutions to take proactive actions in their domains to help the communities manage these challenges. Long-standing political duties such as the capacity to deliver for constituents and proper allocation of resources, along with contemporary burgeoning ones like environmental governance (Environmental Resource Governance or ERG) are critical to arresting environmental externalities associated with climate change. Effective, systematic, and concerted implementation of development pathways and solutions towards addressing these challenges will serve the state and its citizens well in ameliorating the extant challenges of environmental degradation. The authors suggest that a confluence of factors within the political economy ultimately threw up the effete and ineffective governance system. According to Toluwalola Kasali, factors such as: “poor socio-economic performance, human rights abuses, widespread poverty, insecurity, corruption, and lack of trust in the political system have led to disenchantment amongst the electorate, especially the youth (Kasali T., 2020)15. A burgeoning youth profile with the potential to power up the economy as they constitute about 51% of the population and with over 60% of the vast population of an estimated 213 million (World Bank IBRD-IDA Data: Nigeria, 2023).This coupled with attendant environmental degradation probably led to the rise of terrorism and insurgency in these regions.(Omeje K.2004).16 The effect has been that pre-existing sources of livelihood in both regions, artisanal fishing and farming, have been largely destroyed by a mixture of terrorism, lake erosion, drought, water despoliation and land degradation around the LCBA and NRDB. In the NRDB, looking at how and why the combination of activities of multinational oil corporations (MNOCs) and in general Federal (central) and in some cases State governments’ neglect, led to displaced fishermen, farmers and unemployed youth turning into crude oil profiteers damaging oil pipelines to extract oil for sale on the ‘black market’ (Yusuf, K. 2022). This is one of the main contributors to the catastrophic despoliation of fauna and flora, including biodiversity loss.
One of the reservations regarding the Nigerian state’s management of its resources is the local institutional context (state’s legislation and policies) from which resources are derived. That is, the life cycle from prospecting of mineral resources, to processing and export (Omeje K.2004).Communities from where these resources are extracted believe a sizeable share of revenues accruable from such activities within their communities must be ploughed back into their communities via instruments and structures provided for by the constitution, for example the Nigerian Consolidated Revenue Fund (CRF). This is because Nigeria, as a whole, relies so heavily on oil-related revenues. However, it allocates only 13% of the derivation fund to the nine local states (state governments) in the Niger Delta (Adebowale A., 2021).17 This disparity has been a major issue since 1958 when oil, gas and bitumen were first discovered in commercial quantities by Shell and continued through the upheavals of 1990’s and the noughties when the renowned poet and environmentalist, Ken Saro-Wiwa and other Ogoni environmental activists were summarily tried for high treason and executed by the military dictatorship of General Sanni Abacha (Earthrights 2018).18 Local governance and institutional context is key for any successful and effective management of resources. Supporting and fortifying local governance will aid the federal government in managing the community fallout from the oil spillages and crude oil pipeline damages. Trust and community buy-in are key elements of participatory governance. Governments engaging in effective environmental cleaning operations must consider these elements. Without them, it is arguable and likely that both the state/Federal government and the oil majors/ multinational oil companies (MNOCs) will fail.
Governance and how it has led to problems.
Upon gaining its independence in 1960 during the First Republic, Nigeria’s first and only Federal Parliamentary government (governance system) consisted of the ‘Central’ government and other semi-autonomous regional governments and vestiges of the colonial native authority system. They somehow held on to convenient levers and ‘artifices’ of governance which supposedly worked well for the previous colonial administrations in some regions. The few local participatory powers of governance were devolved to regional governments and municipal authorities, which were themselves further absorbed and consolidated into a unitary style of governance by the military. Two successive military coups and administrations took place in 1966 which truncated the short era of parliamentary and democratic rule post-independence. An interplay of the politics of military coups and suboptimal governance took hold in the Nigerian body-polity over a number of decades. Persistent maladministration by successive governments ensued: From the short-lived civilian 2nd Republic (1979-1983) to the ill-fated but truncated military controlled 3rd Republic (1989-1993). These iterations of governance (colonial, military and civilian) both had long-lasting deleterious effects on socio-economic wellbeing and environmental governance. Severely impacting the nascent politics of the Nigerian state (Nyangoro J.E.1994).19
Arguably, therefore, weak governance and a poorly managed development regime affected both the development pathways of both the Niger-River Delta Basin (NRDB) and the Lake Chad Basin Area (LCBA). This impact occurs in the context of pressures from oil and gas extraction/exploration and black-market profiteering activities, population growth, ]environmental degradation and climate change, including the ever-expanding Sahara Desert on the edges of the Sahel region within LCBA countries (Bonzanigo L., Lajaunie M.L., Abdulnour R. (2022).20 In evaluating the current situation, one must acknowledge the impact of colonialism. Colonial rule by European powers in West Africa brought two chief (and alien) cultural legacies in that area: Christianity and Capitalism. Doing so implanted the values inherent in these legacies: the sovereignty of man over the earth and its other creatures, and the commoditization of human and natural resources to make a profit. The legacy of centralized control regardless of local issues was essentially maintained through native authority ‘indirect rule’ by the British Colonial government. This had the deleterious effect of keeping public and lower rungs of government disempowered and disenfranchised. Participatory governance that would have empowered local communities and given them a sense of place and ownership was disabled by this power structure, ultimately leaving the lower rungs of governance closest to the people disempowered (Egbe E.J.,2014).21
Community Solutions and the limitation of that approach
Positive community action in creating environmental sustainability and strengthening the will of politicians to do so begins from the grassroots. However, such grassroots support for participatory governance must come from a public that has confidence in existing structures and systems. Hence, community interventions, in of themselves, cannot substitute for a proactive and responsive governance regime. An exclusive focus on such community programs risks letting various governmental authorities shirk their own responsibilities. An agile political system should put in place environmental communication structures. Doing so engages the community and curtails and redirects community restiveness. Doing so lets the community know that the government is attuned to community concerns, empathetic and willing to act. These interventions should be thoughtfully planned, designed, and implemented by a cross-section of local/municipal, state, and Federal strata of government. Such robust environmental education and engagement could be driven through community elders, imams, Priests, chiefs, and civic leaders. Their messages could be delivered via the various existing Rural Education Authority (REA) and Community outreach programs. This communication system could be administered by the Ministries of Education and Environment of governments. An example of this model was effectively demonstrated in Chile, (Ampuero, Miranda et al. 2015)22 : “The findings reveal a significant benefit in using empathy strategies to engage students regarding the thinking processes involved with solving environmental problems. Using these elements as teaching techniques for environmental education courses can be very helpful in reaching the aims of creating a sustainable citizenry.”22
Other examples of community – based sustainable programs include the Casa Pueblo positive intervention during Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. The power of community was clearly displayed when, according to Artur Massol-Deya, Executive Director of the community-based organization, Casa Pueblo, it ‘helped communities across Puerto Rico (to) install solar panels for a more sustainable and independent futures.23 According to Torres M.,et al (2022)in their paper, ‘Young Adults and the Impacts of Compounding Disaster’, “…During the past four years, Puerto Rico has experienced compounding disasters beginning with the landfall of Hurricane Maria in September 2017. While many of the archipelago’s residents were still recovering from the hurricane in late 2019 and early 2020, Puerto Rico suffered a series of earthquakes, mainly affecting the southwestern portion of the main island….” (Torres M., & Hayward R.A. et al (2022).24 In sum, the devastating effects of such climate externalities led to Casa Pueblo’s positive intervention in 2020. Trying to make sustainable impact in the aftermath of these natural disasters, as a community-based organization. Such efforts are worthy of emulation, perhaps with the possibility of their replication in other parts of the global south and other developing economies.
Proposed public private partnerships and participatory governance.
In the quest for development many resource-rich countries (like Nigeria) have tended to focus, almost exclusively, on how the end justifies the means. They ignore the socio-economic, political, and environmental displacements associated with prospecting for minerals, rare earth metals, hydrocarbons, and water management, to name a few. Resource politics and environmental resource governance (ERG) has been understood and operationalized in limited ways, particularly among least developed countries. Public-private partnership (PPP) model best exemplifies how participatory governance could be effective. Public sector (local, state, and federal governments) development frameworks and initiatives can be combined with community participation, engagements, and buy-ins, as well as other stakeholders such as: non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and private sector local industry players and Multinational corporations (MNCs). Such collaboration might yield the most economically, politically, and environmentally sustainable projects. This kind of development and participatory governance framework requires a level of openness to collaboration amongst all parties, especially around corporate governance. It is also vital and important to have an educated and engaged public. A veritable governance framework that advocates the participation of third sector/non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the effective management of natural resources for the benefit of many is the ‘Institutional Analysis and Development Framework’ proposed by Elinor Ostrom. She posits that the “exploration of solving common pool resources problems” is key as neither the state nor the market had been universally successful in the proper administration of the commons. This alternative is opposed to the other scholarly postulations characterized by the “tragedy of the commons narrative.” Her considered view, backed up by theoretical and empirical analyses over the years, is that “common pool problems sometimes are solved by voluntary organizations rather than by coercive states” (Ostrom, E.1990, 2015).25
Transboundary/transnational competition and collaboration
Due to the discovery of oil and natural gas off the coasts of Senegal and Mauritania in 2015, it can be argued that the discovery and exploitation of this resource, far from being a source of cooperation, could potentially be a source of transboundary tensions. However, if both governments choose to continue cooperating in protecting the existential biodiversity and environmental resources, it could engender transnational cooperation between the West African neighbours on the outer Western stretch of the Sahel. In a situation not dissimilar to the Niger-Delta River Basin of South-Southern Nigeria, The Saint-Louis region of Senegal has always been a bastion of the fisheries industry in Senegal. However, over the past number of years, the diattara or fertile fishing lands on the ocean bed in local Wolof parlance, has become susceptible to sea erosion, washing away settlements and homes, due to the externalities associated with the effects from climate change (Mednick S.2023).26
Ultimately, a combination of the building of gas exploration rigs and the after-effects of COVID-19 pandemic pushed the local populace into desperation, poverty and in some cases destitution having lost access to some of their most productive fishing waters. Commercial fishing hauls dwindled, and the promised economic recovery and rejuvenation have failed to materialize, as the Gas partnership cooperation between the Multinational Oil Corporations (MNOCs) – Kosmos Energy and BP- and respective governments of Senegal and Mauritania have not yet been realized. For the second largest fishing economy, after Nigeria, in West Africa the Senegalese fisheries industry is being negatively impacted by a confluence of factors including the warming waters off the coast of Senegal leading to the migration of sardinella species of fish—a mainstay of Senegalese fisheries industry—northwards towards the coasts of Mauritania and Morocco (Moody J.2023).27 However, the oil and gas exploration almost heralds a death knell for its economy and puts immense pressures on the socio-economic fabric of society in these regions. This case study might have been a classic transboundary cooperation regime prior to the arrival of the oil and gas companies, a cooperative mechanism along the lines of the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) co-opting Lake and land reclamation policies from Cameroon, Chad, Niger Republic, and Nigeria.
Senegal, Mauritania, and Guinea might be able to coalesce around a potential tripartite-type common River-basin authority commission/authority towards managing depleting fish stocks, stopping overfishing from transcontinental fishing trawlers allegedly from Europe and China. This form of cooperation model can make such countries attractive to accessing the World Bank’s funding facility; ‘The Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA) program. Designed as a bespoke multi-donor fund backing Sub-Saharan African nations in engendering “sustainable, climate-resilient growth by addressing constraints to cooperative water resources management.”(Bonzanigo L., Lajaunie M.L., Abdulnour R. (2022).
Conclusion and Recommendations
Multiple historical and present-day factors have jeopardized economic and political sustainability in two African regions. Modifying some of these factors, such as climate change, requires a global, multi-tiered effort. Other factors, however, such as balancing local, regional, and federal priorities are more amenable to modification. This balance can be addressed by a commitment to participatory governance and greater community-business collaboration.
West Africa is the focus of this paper, but the political, economic, and social concerns raised by climate change apply to the entire planet. Some participatory governance interventions may work better in some parts of the world than others. Understanding what works where and the underlying reasons for successful or unsuccessful interventions can guide the design of future interventions.
It will also be valuable to identify any industry-specific factors that affect the success of governance interventions. The examples in the present paper focused on water/fishery and oil/gas resources. Different model development and implementation may be needed for other industries, such as mining, manufacturing, and agriculture. Studies comparing and contrasting industry interventions will also be useful. The relative prominence of localism vs. globalism or, in some cases, nationalism vs. regionalism is a dynamic seen in 21st Century events. This paper has given examples of this dynamic as it affects resource utilization and allocation. How nation-states and governments balance these sometimes-competing areas of focus in managing climate change and other resources also presents an important area for research. Do the colonial and national histories of African countries and others in the Southern Hemisphere facilitate or detract from transboundary collaboration? What other factors may facilitate or undermine such collaboration? (Adaptation without Borders, 2021).28
Making a commitment to a new way of managing risks and facilitating collaboration requires a change in culture for business stakeholders and political leaders. Nevertheless, to be able to manage growth and sustain the well-being of citizens and the environment, it will be easier to make these changes now than wait to make them under the pressure of an environmental or political catastrophe.
This a full-text submission of a presentation at the 9th Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) 2023 Conference organised by the Global Corporate Governance Institute (GCGI) Santander, Universidad De Cantabria, University of Cantabria, Northern Spain. June 14 -16, 2023.
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Who is responsible for the success of the AfCFTA? Traders? Customs? Or both?
Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Implications, Fallout and Impact on Emerging & Frontiers Markets countries – Especially Africa.
– By Olusegun S. Ehinfun
The invasion of Ukraine in the early hours of the 23rd of February 2022 has changed the landscape of trade, geo-politics, culture, and security alignments in the 21st Century. Who would have fathomed Germany decidedly abolishing its pacifist past/history to double its military spending1(Germany Doubles Military Spending, But Can’t Rearm Overnight), boosting its military budget to €2billion Euros, 2(Ukraine war: Germany boosts military aid budget to €2 billion — as it happened) within a few months of the invasion.
Also, the tearing down of the fabric of cultural commonality and the filial bonds of brotherhood between two similar but different Slavic cultures in a drastic fashion would not have been imagined at the turn of the century. However, one of the most lasting implications, fallouts and impacts, of this globally destructive conflict, would be borne by developing nations of the emerging/frontier markets economies, especially in Africa.
‘Failure of Engagement’
African geopolitical analysts posit that Ukraine didn’t cover itself in glory during the initial stages of the war with the treatment of foreign students, especially those of African origins. This was in spite of the groundswell of sympathy for the Ukrainian nation after the unprovoked attack by Russia on a sovereign country- the first in Europe in decades.
The maltreatment of Africans by border guards at points of exit was abysmal.3(Ukraine: Unequal Treatment for Foreigners Attempting to Flee) Only recently has the Ukrainian government woken up from its diplomatic slumber (and some believe faux pas) by making the necessary entreaties and outreach to African nations, 4(Ukraine Appeals for African Support on War With Russia and Food Crisis) inevitably blaming the Russian Federation for the potential hunger/famine that may arise in the Horn of Africa, Egypt, Sudan et al. due to the blockading of ships laden with food supplies from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea.
‘Soviet Imperialism or Great Power Competition’
On the other hand, some African governments’ ambivalence towards Russia’s invasion is sometimes disheartening and leaves much to be desired. It is nonetheless steeped in realpolitik and an enlightened self-interest, geo-political positioning, and a need to counter-balance against the West in order to get the best out outcomes/deals.5(Great Power Competition and the Scramble for Africa)
According to Dylan Yachyshen, “… The world faces a renewed struggle for influence in Africa. Notably, China, Russia, some Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar) and Turkey have employed private entities, state-run companies, and predatory lending and diplomacy to secure economic and political power across the continent…”
The US and European Union governments (the West) are trying to counter Russia’s efforts, 6(The U.S. sends top diplomats to Africa just after Russia’s visit) by almost harking back to the cold-war era. At the end of July, the State Department announced that US Secretary of State, Tony Blinken, would be visiting South Africa (SA), Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda in August.
Perhaps, a response to Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov’s, visit to Egypt, 7(Russia rallies support in Africa as doubt cast on Ukraine grain deal) Ethiopia and other African countries, seemingly in order to assuage their concerns due to the fallout of the perceived Russian Federation’s responsibility in the blockage of grains and food supplies ships from Ukrainian ports like Odessa et al.
‘Cynicism of Preaching and not delivering’
The prevailing zeitgeist in the African Union (AU) headquarters and many African capitals is that the West is only interested in Africa (African affairs) whenever they are making a countervailing (self-interested) argument (or campaigns) against the so called ‘vagaries’ and ‘pernicious’ influences of ‘non-democratic’ ‘despotic’ regimes from either China ( via the much vaunted ‘Silk-Road’/‘Belt-and-Road Initiatives) and a revanchist ‘imperialistic’ Russian trade and military assistance expansion in some parts of Africa.
According to AfricaNews, on a recent 3 – nation visit to Africa, the French President ‘preached’ denouncing: “the ‘hypocrisy’ expressed notably on the African continent” for not clearly recognising Russia’s “unilateral aggression” towards Ukraine, as the European Union does. Macron described the global food crisis as one of Russia’s ‘weapons of war’ during a visit to Cameroon… dismissing suggestions Western sanctions were to blame.” 8(Macron denounces ‘hypocrisy’ on African nations)
It can be argued that African countries’ cynicism towards the West, which congealed Post-COVID with the failure of its botched ‘vaccines diplomacy’ outreaches after hoarding supplies, has a lot to do with why many abstained in the General Assembly of the United Nations (U.N) during the votes whipped by the United States of America (USA) and other developed countries to emplace sanctions on the Russian Federation, as a punitive measure for its invasion of Ukraine.
Implications
The attendant implications are manifold:
African, emerging and frontiers markets nations will be susceptible to such risk/shock factors like the ‘ebb and flow’ of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If, for whatever reason perceived or imagined, Russia decides to renege (unilaterally) on the terms of the grains/food agreement agreed in turkey, 9(Ukraine and Russia sign vital grain export deal in Istanbul) Africa and other developing nations would be ‘left holding the short end of the stick’.10(Turkey says Ukraine-Russia grains deal will help relieve world food crisis)
Fallout
The inexplicable fallout of the hunger/famine angle would be an inevitable scramble (a bear-match of some sorts) for the attentions of democratic, pseudo-democratic and despotic (sit-tight) African and emerging markets countries. Which may, on closer scrutiny, not do much to alleviate the pains, development needs and assuage the desires of the populace for better governance. As the West, Ukraine and Russia (even China) would only seek to assuage the short-sighted whims and needs of a ruling elite (narrow slice of the populace) at the expense of the collective good and interests of entire populations.
For example, the (riots) besieged military dictatorship in Sudan was found to have given a Russian parent front company (Wagner Group, a Private Military Contractor -PMC) exclusive access to the prospecting, mining and export of its cache of gold. 11(Sudan’s military leaders launch ‘manhunt’ for suspected sources after CNN gold investigation sparks protests) Adjudged by analysts as a way of bypassing the manifold financial and trade sanctions emplaced by Western countries on the Russian Federation following its invasion of Ukraine. Replicate such ‘underhand deals’ across many emerging/frontiers’ markets economies and we get a patchwork of deals injurious to the common good.
Impact
The ultimate impact on emerging/frontiers markets and African economies is the continued disruption in their food supply value chains. The price of continued dependence on grains and food supplies from unstable countries like Russia and Ukraine (due to the invasion) will have a deleterious and lasting effect on the economies of such countries. Beyond the disruption, there is a possibility of civil unrests, riots, regional conflagration and economic collapse, a la Sri Lanka. The obvious, but decidedly difficult, option is for these countries to undertake and commence programmes of technology aided agrarian cultivation of the fertile land in their respective countries.
It is no mean task, and it would take progressive, forward-thinking and transformative leadership, in addition to enormous tranche of capital in the medium-to-long term. According to President Paul Kagame, Rwanda and Africa ought to derive a lesson of resilience from the Ukraine- Russia conflict: “there is a need to build resilience in our systems, especially economic systems, so that such shocks that come from these things that happen in one place or another, at different times do not overwhelm any country or our country.
“Suppose this crisis is over and another one starts somewhere else, how do you overcome the difficulties that are going to come along with that? For me it is the biggest lesson. So everything we do here, we try to factor in that kind of possibility that there is a crisis coming… if it came, how would we survive,” he surmised. 12(Rwanda Should Derive a Lesson of Resilience From Russia-Ukraine War – Kagame) This sums it up nicely.
Olusegun Ehinfun is a Politics & Environment PhD. Researcher at the University of York, England.
——————————————————————
His research focuses on : How ownership (legal) rights of communities are resolved with respect to development of water, land, and extractive mineral resources including its impact(s) on the ecosystem.
Especially, on how society addresses widespread biodiversity loss given the absence of political will. Ultimately, identifying sustainable Climate Change Adaptation solutions and beneficial community partnerships in ensuring resilient ecosystems.
——————————————————————
He can be reached at: olusegunehinfun@globalbusinessdynamics.com
Sources:
- Richard Weiss, Arne Delfs, Michael Nienaber, ‘Germany Doubles Military Spending, But Can’t Rearm Overnight’; Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine has cast a spotlight on German preparedness. Businessweek Business/ Bloomberg UK, 24th March 2022.
- ‘Ukraine war: Germany boosts military aid budget to €2 billion — as it happened’, DW.com (Deutsche Welle)15th March, 2022.Ukraine:
- Unequal Treatment for For Foreigners Attempting to Flee; Pattern of Blocking, Delaying Non-Ukrainians’, Human Rights Watch (HRW), March 4, 2022.
- Mohammed Yusuf, ‘Africa: Ukraine Appeals for African Support on War With Russia and Food Crisis’ Voice of America (VOA), June 24, 2022.
- Dylan Yachyshen, ‘Great Power Competition and the Scramble for Africa’, Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), National Security Program, April 30, 2020.
- ‘The U.S. sends top diplomats to Africa just after Russia’s visit’, Africanews, 30th of July 2022.
- Jon Henley, ‘Russia rallies support in Africa as doubt cast on Ukraine grain deal’, ‘Russian foreign minister starts trip in Egypt, one day after Russian strike on Odesa put question mark on deal to restart exports’; The Guardian, 24th of July 2022.
- ‘Macron denounces “hypocrisy”on African nations’, Rédaction AfricaNews with Agencies. 26th of July, 2022.
- Turkey: Ukraine and Russia sign vital grain export deal in Istanbul, Euronews with AFP 23rd July, 2022.
- Ezgi Erkoyun, Tubman Gumrukcu, Turkey says Ukraine-Russia Grains Deal Would Help Relieve Food Crisis, Reuters, July 22, 2022.
- Nima Elbagir, ‘Sudan’s military leaders launch ‘manhunt’ for suspected sources after CNN gold investigation sparks protests’. CNN WORLD, August 1, 2022
12. Alice Kagina, ‘Rwanda Should Derive a Lesson of Resilience From Russia-Ukraine War – Kagame’, AllAfrica.com, 4th of July, 2022.
Climate Change and Intergenerational Challenges – Finetuning Climate Change Mitigation Efforts.
By Olusegun S. Ehinfun
At the 2020 World Economic Forum (WEF) Davos, Switzerland Greta Thornberg, Vanessa Nakate and other climate activists changed the game on climate change by putting forward a forceful argument with long-lasting resonance amongst the youth globally. There exists an inter-generational challenge which was all too clear, through the duelling and varying viewpoints expressed between ex-President Donald Trump and Thornberg.
The effects of climate change affect younger people and those living in developing economies much more as other developing countries (China, India) are making progress on global warming reduction, relative to a decade ago, which is still not enough. Developed nations in the West and the USA are historically the largest emitters and polluters, however the private sector, cities, states are reducing emissions. To solve these challenges, collaborative approaches are required by developed economies, while developing countries must be open to bold solutions. Their economies must be viewed as veritable partners. In turn they ought to get on board with sustainable actions through a public- private sector partnerships (PPP).1
Concrete Actions
The young populations living in developing economies of the emerging and frontiers markets are going to be disproportionately affected by Climate Change. They have been successful in their advocacy efforts for better ‘green policies’ so far. This must be translated into concrete actions. For instance, in Wales, the appointment of a ‘Future Generations Commissioner’, Ms. Sophie Howe, with statutory powers to represent the ‘unborn’ citizens of Wales was a pioneering concept globally . Canada, Israel, and Hungary are other countries trying to adopt this model. 2
Multinational companies (MNCs), Investment Banks (BlackRock, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs and even Oil companies (Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron- Texaco), Tech Firms have all undertaken to be carbon negative. Blackrock’s CEO, Larry Fink “said his firm would avoid investments in companies that ‘present a high sustainability-related risk’.” 3 Microsoft also says it would be ‘carbon negative’ by 2030. 4 Laudable. Wise. Perhaps strategic in the short term, however it must be sustainable in order for it not to be perceived as ‘greenwashing’. The ‘kids’ are ahead of the ‘adults’ in this regard. Youths in 2022 are wary of such promises.
For instance, Starbucks aims to make its packaging reusable, investing in better waste-management practices, its latest plan towards becoming environmentally conscious. 5 The efforts of Starbucks in looking into alternative dairy as a way of reducing its carbon footprint. Commendable and perhaps impactful in the short run. This corporate model has to be modified and fine-tuned to deliver holistic and sustainable solutions. An increase of research and development budgets in green energy innovations, like the recently discovered (Nuclear) Fusion Energy innovation/ breakthrough at a laboratory in Abingdon, Oxford creating safe, low-carbon energy. Rather than splitting atoms to create energy, which is what happens in nuclear-powered stations (Fission Energy), this entails forcing hydrogen atoms together in a cloud of gas many times hotter than the centre of the sun. There is no long-lived waste left behind. “The Joint European Torus (JET) is an experimental fusion machine in Oxford.” According to Professor Ian Chapman “the results of the latest tests are a “landmark”. However, commercial viability of the technology is still some years away.” 6
Risks & Challenges
Catastrophic climate change is doing damage to the environment: Australian Wildfires in 2020 Canadian wildfires, erosion of rivers in Madagascar and Lake Chad Basin, floods in Northwest Europe, natural disasters are hard to prevent and reverse. The attempts by the United Nations (UN) Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to keep climate change under one and a half degrees (1.50) of temperature rising 7 is looking incredibly difficult, according to climate scientists. “This report tells us that recent changes in the climate are widespread, rapid, and intensifying, unprecedented in thousands of years,” Ko Barrett, vice chair of the IPCC and senior adviser for climate at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said. Climate change “is already affecting every region on earth in multiple ways,” Barrett said. “There’s no going back from some changes in the climate system.” 8
Solutions
The Challenge has to be confronted through innovations: green energy, carbon capture/storage, geo-engineering. Not to mention the policy of planting over 350 million trees by governments like in Ethiopia. 9 A solution proposed by Professor Lawrence (Larry) H. Summers involves carbon pricing and the removal of subsidies by governments. He believes that the climate discussions at the WEF avoided the problem. When asked if private investments could make the difference on climate change, he averred : “I think most of what you heard (at Davos) is a pretty total avoidance of the real problem, and if this kind of thing is the focus, the problem is going to get worse. Three things need to happen, if the world is going to make progress (on climate) none of which was mentioned.”
We need: (1.) “To scale back the hundreds of billions of dollars we spend on fossil fuels, and fossil fuels subsidies; we (also) need to have governments stop subsidising fossil fuels, and their ability, and their use. (2.) much more investments by governments in clean energies, and the way governments need to get revenues to make that investment is by levying taxes and having the people of such organizations represented (at Davos), paying more taxes, none of them are willing to say that. (3.) to tax things that are bad. Right now, we have a world that are more oriented towards taxing things that are good, like work and savings and we need to tax the things that are bad. Like putting emissions into the air. So as long as the word tax and subsidies are outside the conversation, and it’s all just (that) we will feel better if we do this, the world’s not going to make progress in solving this problem. The idea is that in the 20 or 30 years we are supposed to get the (current) levels of emissions to zero. We haven’t even achieved the modest goal of stopping emissions from growing year after year. So, we need to get serious, not rhetorical about this.” 10
Conclusion
At Davos, analysts were surprised that one of the issues which did not make the agenda was carbon pricing. Most economists would posit about putting a price on emissions. Across governmental levels, international climate change experts and national economic policy planners are having a big debate about carbon pricing and carbon tax.
Therein lies the challenge for advocates of market-based solutions on climate change policy. How to balance the demanding needs of growth within western economies, and especially the developing economies, largely dependent on the burning of fossil fuels. President Macron found out all too well after he implemented onerous carbon pricing measures, this ultimately led to months of protests by the gilets jaune. 11 This is a generational challenge that has to be tackled with bold, innovative solutions. Globally, the young are no longer waiting for ‘men in suits’.
Olusegun Ehinfun
Olusegun Ehinfun is a management consultant with Global Business Dynamics Consultancy and the author of : ‘Oil & Water: Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) – An Elixir for solving societal challenges.’
He can be reached on: @globalbizdynam1
olusegunehinfun@globalbusinessdynamics.com
Bibliography:
- Jafar M., ‘To Tackle Climate Change, Developing Countries Have to Get on Board’, National Opinion, theNationalnews.com, The National, 2020.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/to-tackle-climate-change-developing-countries-have-to-get-on-board-1.966803 - Balch O., Meet the World’s First Minister for Future Generations, theguardianonline.com, The Guardian, 2 March 2019.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/02/meet-the-worlds-first-future-generations-commissioner - Sorkin A.R.(2020), DEALBOOK: BlackRock C.E.O. Larry ‘Fink: Climate Crisis Will Reshape Finance.’ “In his influential annual letter to chief executives, Mr. Fink said his firm would avoid investments in companies that “present a high sustainability-related risk.” New York Times Publication, Published Jan. 14, 2020.Updated Feb. 24, 2020.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/business/dealbook/larry-fink-blackrock-climate-change.html - Smith B.(2020), President & Vice Chairman Microsoft, ‘Microsoft will be carbon negative by 2030’, Microsoft On the Issues, Microsoft Blog, Jan 16, 2020.
https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2020/01/16/microsoft-will-be-carbon-negative-by-2030/ - Bloomberg Quicktake (2020), ‘Starbucks is Looking into Alternative Dairy as a Way to Reduce its Carbon Footprint’. @Bloomberg Quicktake, January 22, 2020.
https://twitter.com/quicktake/status/1219937787698348032?s=27
Paul Roberts (2020), ‘Starbucks is Aiming to Make its Packaging Reusable and Invest in Better Waste-management, as Part of the Company’s Latest Plan to become More Environmentally Friendly’, Business, Local Business, The Seattle Times, Jan. 21, 2020, Updated Jan. 23, 2020.
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/starbucks/starbucks-unveils-new-sustainability-push-aiming-to-slash-waste-water-use-and-carbon-emissions/
- Clarke T.(2022), “UK scientists set new record for generating energy from nuclear fusion with reaction ’10 times hotter than the sun’”, Science and Technology Editor, Skynews.com, Sky News, 2022.
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-scientists-set-new-record-for-generating-energy-from-nuclear-fusion-but-commercial-application-still-years-away-12536956 - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2021), Special Report : Global Warming of 1.50 (Degrees)
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ - Irfan U., Leber R.(2021), ‘UN Climate Report: IPCC Says Humans Caused “Unequivocal” Warming’, The Devastating New UN Report on Climate Change, Explained. Vox.com, Vox
Aug 9, 2021.
https://www.vox.com/22613027/un-ipcc-climate-change-report-ar6-disaster - Osborne S.(2019), “Ethiopia ‘Plants More than 350 million Trees’ in One Day, Officials claim to have broken world record”, News, World, Africa , The Independent, Monday 29 July 2019.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/ethiopia-trees-plant-world-record-abiy-ahmed-a9025896.html - Bloomberg TV News Live, 2020., “Wall Street Week” Full Show, (Panel Discussion) (01/10/20) Bloomberg, January 11th, 2020.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-01-11/wall-street-week-full-show-01-20-20-video - Chrisafis A. (2018), ‘Who are the gilets jaunes and what do they want? What began as a fuel tax protest by French drivers now appeals to wider anti-government sentiment.’ theguardianonline.com, The Guardian, 7 December, 2019.
Climate Change and Intergenerational Challenges
By – Olusegun Ehinfun
Greta Thornberg, Vanessa Nakate, a Ugandan climate change advocate and other climate activists have changed the game on climate change. There exists an inter generational challenge, which was clearly seen played out at the 2020 World Economic Forum (WEF), Davos, Switzerland, through the dueling and varying approaches between President Donald Trump and the Swedish Climate Change Activist and campaigner Greta Thornberg.
Runaway climate change affects everyone. However, it is going to impact younger people and those living in developing economies (in the Global South) much more, in the years to come. Although, other developing countries (China, India) are making a lot of progress in their attempts to really care about Global Warming and Climate Change, relative to a decade ago, it is still not enough. It is a fact that developed nations in the West and the USA & China are historically the largest emitters and polluters of the climate. It must be acknowledged that, in the West (and increasingly more so in China), the private sector, municipal governments & regional governments are (progressively) at the forefront of reducing emissions.
However, to solve this challenge a more collaborative approach is required by the more developed economies; and the emerging market ones must also be amenable to radical, bold proposals. Emerging and frontiers market economies must also be treated as veritable and long-term partners in the evolution of green & climate change policies. Developing countries also ought to get on board with sustainable and concrete actions through a public- private sector partnerships (PPP) model. (To tackle climate change, developing countries have to get on board)
Concrete Actions
People who are in their teens like Greta Thornberg, Vanessa Nakate and the young population living especially in developing economies of the emerging and frontiers markets, are going to be disproportionately affected by the externalities associated with Climate Change and especially global Warming. They have been successful in their advocacy efforts to encourage movements towards better ‘green policies’ so far. However, this needs to be translated into concrete actions. For instance, in Wales, the appointment of the first ‘Future Generations Commissioner’ (the first in the world), Ms. Sophie Howe, with statutory powers to represent the ‘unborn’ citizens of Wales is a ground-breaking development. Canada, Israel and Hungary are other countries trying to adopt this model. (Meet the world’s first ‘minister for future generations’)
However, on the governance and policy levels, it is important that all the stakeholders – the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [the United Nations – UN], multilateral development, trade and economic bodies/ groupings, and the World Economic Forum (WEF 2020) – discuss solutions to climate change in a holistic manner. To this end, the private sector (with various proposed partnerships with third party Organisations popping up here and there) are ‘seeing the light’.
It is also noteworthy that Multinational companies (MNCs), Investment Banks (BlackRock, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs – BlackRock C.E.O. Larry Fink: Climate Crisis Will Reshape Finance) and even Oil companies (Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron- Texaco), Tech Firms (especially Microsoft – Microsoft will be carbon negative by 2030) have all undertaken to be carbon negative by a certain period. Laudable. Wise. Perhaps strategic in the short term, however it must be sustainable in order for it not to be perceived as ‘greenwashing’. The ‘kids’ are ahead of the ‘adults’ in this regard.
For instance, Starbucks is aiming to make its packaging reusable and invest in better waste-management, as part of the company’s latest plan to become more environmentally friendly. (Starbucks is looking into alternative dairy as a way to reduce its carbon footprint). This efforts of Starbucks in looking into alternative dairy as a way to reduce its carbon footprint is commendable and perhaps impactful in the short run. However, the model has to be modified and fine-tuned to deliver a holistic and more sustainable solutions.
Public-Private Sector Partnerships (PPP), Participation & Investments
Getting Business and citizens together, in moderate, thoughtful discussions, and partnerships helps get the needed financing, goodwill and political will to solve the climate emergency.
It is the investments in research and development, in Green energy innovations, that are driven (coupled with) in part by a well-regulated market economy, which can enable the world to create the science that will ultimately help us to prevent dangerous and debilitating climate change.
To this end, it is important that a proper market economy ought to be able to evolve and capture the costs of externalities (when businesses have a negative or deleterious effects on the future). Policy action plans, which currently does not have the costing and estimation of risks are not in place in most countries. There is an absence of holistic policies for the efficient taxation of aviation fuel, and a lack of efficient ways/methods of really taxing carbon and pollution/pollutants. Costs which are actually passed unto the consumers, as ‘Air Passenger Duties’, really inefficient and are lumpy ways of implementing a sustainable emissions management system.
Actually, there exists an opportunity to genuinely harness market forces also, in order to make businesses pay for the costs of the afore-mentioned externalities. Consequently, this would enable the efficient dealing – among countries, multilateral bodies/groupings) – with climate change issues, effectively. This would enable the current generation not to pass on undue risks to future generations.
Risks & Challenges
We are getting to the stage where catastrophic climate change is doing almost irreparable damage, as evidenced by the recent Australian Wild fires, the February 2020 heavy flooding in the UK: These are externalities that are hard to prevent and reverse entirely in a short-to-medium span of time. It will be a long, grinding, difficult and persistent process. The various attempts by the Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to keep climate change at under one and a half degrees (1.5*) of temperature rising is looking incredibly difficult, according to respected climate scientists.
Solutions
The Challenge has to be confronted head-on, through various innovations of the science of green energy, climate carbon capture and storage, proven (unproven) innovations around geo-engineering solutions. Not to mention the immensely helpful policy of planting over 350 million trees by the government and Prime Minister of Ethiopia in a day. Ethiopia ‘plants more than 350 million trees’ in one day
A lot of culture change has to be encouraged, lifestyle changes and new habits ingrained. With regard to sustainable green practices, this culture has to be imbibed and learned by whole segments of populations across the world. Heating sources in the developed and underdeveloped economies will be modernized, travel habits have to probably change over a period of time o and concrete solutions via cleaner innovations will have to be scaled to a wider population around the world.
The Governments of the world, in terms of emplacing effective regulations and private sector business participation, all have to think about the long- term consequences of their collective decisions. In sum, they all need to harness government resources, business forces, 3rd part & community organisations, market forces, the investment economy, community and societal goodwill and sustainable concrete actions in order to make a step-change and radical progress at tackling climate change effectively.
One of the most vital solutions advocated by the former Treasury Secretary of the United States, and Professor at Harvard University, Lawrence (Larry) H. Summers involves carbon pricing and the removal of subsidies by governments around the world. Climate comes into focus at Davos He believes that the climate discussions at the WEF, Davos in 2020 betrayed a total avoidance of the problem. He said this during a panel discussion on Bloomberg TV, when asked if private investments could make the difference in climate change. He averred;
“I think most of what you heard (at Davos) is a pretty total avoidance of the real problem, and if this kind of thing is the focus, the problem is going to get worse. Three things need to happen, if the world is going to make progress (on climate) none of which was mentioned by any of those people (the participants at Davos).” He continues, (1.) “We need to scale back the hundreds of billions of dollars we spend on fossil fuels, and fossil fuels subsidies; we (also) need to have governments (around the world) stop subsidising fossil fuels, and their ability, and their use. (2.) We need much more invested by governments in clean energies, and the way governments need to get revenues to make that investment is by levying taxes and having the people of such organizations represented … (at Davos), paying more taxes, and (however) none of them are willing to say that. They will all say how they’ve got a ‘Chief Green Officer’, and how they are using solar powered plants (fixing solar something or other on their roof) rather than recognise that they needed to pay more taxes.
(3.) The third thing is we need to tax things that are bad. Right now we have a world that are more oriented towards taxing things that are good, like work and savings; and we need to tax the things that are bad. Like putting emissions into the air. So as long as the word, tax and subsidies are outside the conversation, and it’s all just (that) we will feel better if we do this, the world’s not going to make progress in solving this problem. (Especially) regarding the President (Trump) not withstanding (with regard to emissions). The idea is that in the 20 or 30 years we are supposed to get the (current) levels of emissions to zero. We haven’t even achieved the modest goal of stopping emissions from growing year after year. So we need to get serious, not rhetorical about this.”
At Davos, analysts were palpably surprised that one of the issues that did not even make it unto the agenda was carbon pricing. Often, most economists would posit on ways of putting a price on emissions. Across governmental levels however, international climate change experts and national economic policy planners are having a big debate about carbon pricing and carbon tax.
Larry Summers believes that:
“With carbon pricing, there’s a different way of doing it: You can sell the rights to emit and government can collect the revenues that way, either way we need the government doing something that puts the price of carbon substantially higher. And as long as the United States doesn’t increase gasoline taxes from where they were a generation ago, then we are fundamentally not serious as a country on this issue and it doesn’t matter much what Larry thinks or says in a letter to the corporations.”
Therein lies the challenge for advocates of market-based solutions on climate change policy. How to balance the demanding needs of growth (even) within western economies, and especially the developing economies of emerging market countries, which are largely heavily dependent on the burning of fossil fuels, thereby most susceptible to undercutting the climate targets set at international forums of the UN and other multilateral bodies or COP conferences. President Macron of France found out all too well after he implemented onerous carbon taxing/pricing measures, ultimately led to months of intense riots and protests by the gilets jaune. This is a generational challenge that has to be tackled with bold, new, innovative and radical solutions. Globally, the young are no longer waiting for the ‘men in suits’. Who are the gilets jaune and what do they want? (Who are the gilets jaunes and what do they want?)
Olusegun Ehinfun
Olusegun Ehinfun is a management consultant with Global Business Dynamics Consultancy and the author of : ‘Oil & Water: Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) – An Elixir for solving societal challenges.’
He can be reached on: @globalbizdynam1
olusegunehinfun@globalbusinessdynamics.com
Sources:
- To tackle climate change, developing countries have to get on board. Emerging economies need to be treated as partners for real progress be made in curbing global emission. Majid Jafar – To tackle climate change, developing countries have to get on board
- Meet the World’s First Minister for Future Generations. By Oliver Balch, 2 March 2019. Meet the world’s first ‘minister for future generations’
- DEALBOOK|| BlackRock C.E.O. Larry ‘Fink: Climate Crisis Will Reshape Finance.’ In his influential annual letter to chief executives, Mr. Fink said his firm would avoid investments in companies that “present a high sustainability-related risk.” BlackRock C.E.O. Larry Fink: Climate Crisis Will Reshape Finance
- Microsoft Will be Carbon Negative by 2030, Jan 16, 2020 Brad Smith – President Microsoft will be carbon negative by 2030
- Starbucks is aiming to make its packaging reusable and invest in better waste-management, as part of the company’s latest plan to become more environmentally friendly. Ethiopia ‘plants more than 350 million trees’ in one day, By Samuel Osborne, The Independent; 29 July, 2019. Ethiopia ‘plants more than 350 million trees’ in one day
The Largest Shadow Economy in Africa: Cotonou – Lagos Land Corridor
The Largest Shadow Economy in Africa –
The Cotonou (Benin Republic) – Lagos (Nigeria) Land Corridor
– Olusegun Ehinfun
Analysts of emerging and frontiers market economies have long noted that shadow economies do a lot of damage to the economies of nation-states big and small. In Africa, it is almost a norm that shadow economies exist and flourish. In West Africa, the king of Shadow economies is along the Benin Republic – Nigerian land border tract. Known by various appellations: ‘cash economy’, ‘informal economy’, ‘shadow economy’, ‘hidden economy’, ‘gray economy’, ‘lack economy’ and ‘black economy’. These sobriquets are sometimes, interchangeably known by varying names, as such activities encompass a sizeable, perhaps unknowable segment of a nation’s uncaptured gross domestic product (GDP). It consists of a universe of economic activities, pecuniary gains and withheld revenues, largely surreptitiously, hidden from governments, international regulatory bodies and transnational authorities either for institutional, monetary and regulatory reasons. Pecuniary reasons may include tax evasion, avoidance of social security (USA), National Insurance (U.K.) contributions. Commonly known regulatory reasons include, efforts at avoiding the burdens of onerous regulations frameworks and evading governmental bureaucracies and associated bottlenecks.
Difficulty of Measurement
According to Leandro Medina and Friedrich Schneider, in their International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper titled: “Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?”. In their estimation, the largest shadow economies are in Zimbabwe and Bolivia. According to the authors, “The shadow economy, is by nature, difficult to measure, as agents engaged in shadow economy activities try to remain undetected. The request for information about the extent of the shadow economy and its developments over time is motivated by its political and economic relevance. Moreover, total economic activity, including official and unofficial production of goods and services is essential in the design of economic policies that respond to fluctuations and economic development, over time and across space.Furthermore, the size of the shadow economy is a core input to estimate the extent of tax evasion and thus for decisions on its adequate control.”
For their detailed studies and exhaustive research of 158 economies, Medina and Schneider’s narrow definition of a ‘shadow’ or ‘informal’ economy reflected only “mostly legal, economic and productive activities, that if recorded, would contribute to national GDP, therefore the definition of the shadow economy … tries to avoid illegal or criminal activities, do-it-yourself or other household activities.” This approach is understandable and germane to the activities of moderately, advanced and more developed economies. It would be somewhat misleading if wholly applied to, for instance, Less Developed Countries/ Economies (LDCs) like Benin Republic, Togo, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Moreso, for slightly more developed ones like the economies of emerging and frontiers markets like Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon.
Shadow Economy Definition(s)
For less developed, frontiers and emerging market economies, the lifeblood of their economic systems, especially where most of the productive economic activities occur hitherto uncaptured by statutory data, is in its ‘informal’ or ‘gray’ economies. Consisting of millions of ‘do-it-yourself’, ‘mom-and-pop’, ‘household micro-businesses, Import- Export Small-scale entrepreneurs, and smuggling/criminal operations (the most pernicious of the shadow economy participants).This is why the estimation of ‘shadow economies’ globally is quite controversial (Compare the different opinions of Tanzi (1999), Thomas (1999), Giles 1999. An alternative and commonly used working definition is`: “all currently unregistered economic activities that contribute to the officially calculated (or observed) Gross National Product” (variously used by Feige (1989,1994), Schneider (1994a, 2003), Frey and Pommerehne (1984) and Lubell (1991),and For “Do-It-Yourself Activities” for Germany, see Karmann (1990). 2
Smith (1994, p.18) defines it as “market-based production of goods and services, whether legal or illegal that escapes detection in the official estimates of GDP”. However, one of the broadest definitions includes: “those economic activities and the income derived from them that circumvent or otherwise government regulation, taxation or observation” (Dell’ Anno 2003 and Feige 1989, Thomas, 1999, Fleming, Roman and Farrell (2000).
Table 2.1: A Taxonomy of Types of Underground Economic Activities2
| Type of Activity | Monetary Transactions | Non-Monetary Transactions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Illegal Activities | Trade with stolen goods; drug dealing and manufacturing; prostitution; gambling; smuggling; fraud etc. | Barter of drugs, stolen goods, smuggling etc. | Produce or growing drugs for own use. Theft for own use. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Legal Activities | Tax Evasion | Tax Avoidance | Tax Evasion | Tax Avoidance | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Unreported income from self -employment; Wages, Salaries and Assets from unreported work related to legal services and goods. | Employee discounts, fringe benefits | Barter of legal services and goods | All do-it-yourself work and neighbour help | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Structure of the table is taken from Lippert and Walker (1997, p.5) with additional remarks.
Data Fail
In 2004, Schneider and Klinglmair estimated that the shadow economies in Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Nigeria were 59.4%, 58.3% and 57.9% respectively, having the largest shadow economies in the world. Typically, the extent, sizes and pervasiveness of African shadow economies are the largest (Schneider and Klinglmair, 2004). According to the duo: “Gathering statistics about who is engaged in underground activities, the frequencies with which these activities are occurring and the magnitude of them, is crucial for making effective and efficient decisions regarding the allocations of a country’s resources in this area. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to get accurate information about these underground (or as a subset shadow economy) activities on the goods and labour market, because all individuals engaged in these activities wish not to be identified. Hence, the estimation of the shadow economy activities can be considered as a scientific passion for knowing the unknown”.
It is in this writer’s estimation, that the breadth and extent of a shadow economy can only be judged (estimated) adequately in the notional sense: By economic output, size and volumes of activities, (albeit some illegal), undertaken within a frontiers, emerging markets and low-income developing economy. The fact that there exists a dearth of realistic and accurate statistics on most economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), makes the work of policy planners and workers a tad difficult. To this end, the largest shadow economy in Africa arguably would – judging by the size of its economy and paucity of ‘informal’, ‘gray’ sector data- easily be Nigeria. However, this can only be notionally considered as such, because the volume and extent of underground economic activities (including shadow economic ones) are usually difficult to successfully estimate. Economists Leandro Medina and Friedrich Schneider refer to this, in their paper, as “fact of life”.
Successive governments of Benin Republic, Togo and especially Nigeria have all, in the past, tried to ‘stymie and control such illegal economic activities via measures like prison imprisonments, levies, fines, prosecutions, economic growth policies, citizen re-orientation and education. Especially, on the Benin Republic (Cotonou-Seme border – Lagos Axis, where various cross-border economic activities are carried out daily. This is because most national and international statisticians have been unable to accurately gauge the underlying scale, size and volume and cultural extent of the shadow economy. A parallel economy uncaptured by accurate statistics due to the illegal nature of activities, trades and business being executed, sometimes with the active connivance and participation of most border communities. This is the most productive economic activity and work that could be engaged in by some unemployed youths and legitimate businesses in the border regions.
Import Substitution and Policy Somersaults
In the past half century, many African governments have tried, mostly unsuccessfully to reduce their reliance on imports from more developed economies. The often-used policy of Import Substitution and Industrialisation (ISI) is usually aimed at trying to become self-sufficient in certain manufacturing sectors and industries. According to Dominik Langdale, “in an effort to decrease their dependence on developed countries, numerous African nations are employing a strategy of ‘Import Substitution Industrialisation’ to increase their self-sufficiency in the manufacturing industry and stimulate domestic production.3 “ He avers that because Africa is “commonly viewed as the last frontier offering generous yield opportunities, (Africa) finds itself at the centre of the developed world’s investment appetite. In recent years, the focus has shifted away from the continent’s abundance of natural resources and cast agriculture, technology, infrastructure and manufacturing into the spotlight. The advancement of these industries in unison will transform Africa into a continent of economic exports, meeting with the African Union’s (AU) ‘Agenda 2063’ to create a prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable, people-driven development.”
Nigeria has been here before. Prior to the discovery of oil in Oloibiri, in present-day Rivers State, it earned much of its revenues from exporting primary agricultural produce to developed nations like its former colonial power (Britain), America, France and a few countries in Asia. Cotton, cocoa, groundnuts and palm produce were the mainstay of the largely agrarian and partially developed regional economies, in the Northern Western and Eastern regions of the economy. It rarely traded with its fellow African countries (in bulk) largely because they lacked the foreign exchange to pay and aggregate demand within such countries were too low to trade huge volumes. The consequence of this dependence on the international markets (mostly Western nations) was that its economy became captive to the vagaries of international commercial dynamics. Price instability in its produce commodities, fluctuations in its receipts of foreign exchange earnings. According to M.N. Ogbonna in his seminal paper titled ‘On Import Substitution in Nigeria’, he contends that: “this price instability is caused by ‘world cyclical movements and inter- country shifts in supply availabilities’, and produces adverse effects on the country’s payment position…”
His postulation then, still holds water today in this sense: “It is to reduce their dependence on external assistance and to remedy the vulnerability of their commodities to wide price swings that most developing primary producing countries try to diversify their economies to achieve some degree of self-sufficiency. In a world of economic interdependence, the idea of economic self-sufficiency is both elusive and unattainable. Nonetheless, it has become increasingly clear that because of international economic problems, some measure of industrialisation seems a logical step towards reducing the dependence of the developing countries on the industrial countries. It has therefore become imperative in recent decades for the governments of third world [economies] to ensure that in their policy action(s), that diversification does not only relate to primary production but also to some industrialisation via import substitution.” In plain English, import substitution is important, however it has to be backed up by a complement of a fully evolved and joined-up policy actions; including a slew of trade policies, decisive actions and needed institutional support. That which truly, and genuinely engenders and supports development and growth in the real sectors of the economy. Small businesses (import and export), Artisanal enterprises (‘mom and pop businesses’ that import source materials for uses in finished goods).
Protectionism & Blanket Importation Bans
In August 2019, the Muhammudu Buhari led Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) implemented a ban on the importation of goods over land for an indeterminate period, according to the country’s customs chief. This blanket ban is a policy move that has been devastating for commerce and economic activities in the neighbouring state of Benin Republic. Hundreds of lorries have been stuck at the Seme-Krake border, in Southern Benin, for weeks, since the surprise announcement of the new policy. Businessmen and entrepreneurs who import hundreds of tonnes of rice imports from Asia lost millions of Euros due to the hold-up of their goods at the border. A rice entrepreneur, Landry Bonou, claims he lost upwards of Eur180 Million Euros since his consignments of rice were stopped at the border. The Cotonou port receives about 10million tones of merchandise annually, half of which are usually destined for Nigeria.
With the stoppage of free flow of goods and merchandise from the Cotonou port, in land, into Nigeria, and the accompanying goods also stuck at the Northern and Southern ends of Benin Republic borders. Thousands of Beninois port staff, employees of haulage firms and small-scale businesses (‘mom and pop shops’) are now (momentarily) out of work. As commerce and trade with Nigeria alone accounts for about 20-25% of the Beninois economy, it is being negatively impacted in ways which is detrimental to the overall well-being of its citizens. Most of whom are active participants in the shadow economy between the Cotonou (Benin Republic) – Lagos (Nigeria) Land Corridor. This protectionist policy by the FGN is supposedly geared at stimulating domestic demand and conserving precious foreign exchange reserves. It is also a bid to reduce the amount of rice and other staple foods and other household consumables being smuggled into the country. Businesses transporting Rice, Butter, Pasta, Spaghetti, Sugar at al.
This policy, which is anti- competitive and protectionist in essence, has been borne out in some areas. Evidenced by positive results in a few areas, towards engendering a measure of self – sufficiency within a few strategic sectors – farm produce, fast consumer moving goods (FCMG), manufacturing. Efforts aimed at curbing the challenge of undue reliance on imports, which undercuts the local production of such consumables. Recently, a new rice processing mill was commissioned in Igbari, Anambra East local government, in the Southeastern region of Nigeria5. The Anambra State Government (ASG), in partnership with the FGN, tries to encourage more rice production locally, in an effort at boosting food security. The 120,000 Metric Tonnes per annum capacity Plant is a project in partnership with the renowned Nigerian entrepreneur and Chairman of Coscharis Farms, Cosmas Maduka, with loan guarantees from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). This is a laudable example of the required institutional support needed to head off the huge ‘shadow economy’, as yet unquantified (perhaps unquantifiable) in rice importation via the Benin Republic – Nigeria land border.
Over the years however, economic activities as a result of government ‘over-regulation’, has in large part, led to massive importation of cars via the Benin Republic Seme – Nigerian border. Importation of machinery, textiles, agricultural produce and source raw materials used in manufacturing. This is a consequence, mostly a result of policy upheavals – called ‘Policy Somersaults’ in Nigerian parlance. Usually occurs when the government – usually of various stripes and parties – come in with high hopes of stimulating growth in moribund local industries, only to fall short spectacularly. In their efforts to stimulate real growth in such economic sectors. In Nigeria, past governments have placed bans on the importation of household consumables: toothpicks, tomato puree/paste, tyres, generators, fruit drinks (juices), beer and spirits. This form of protectionist inclinations does a lot to foster illegal and illicit activities, thus engendering the inevitable growth and sustenance of shadow economies all along the Southern and Northern borders between Benin Republic and Nigeria.
Olusegun Ehinfun
Olusegun Ehinfun is a management consultant with Global Business Dynamics Consultancy and can be reached on @globalbizdynam1 and olusegunehinfun@globalbusinessdynamics.com
Sources:
- IMF Working Paper- Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years? By Leandro Medina and Friedrich Schneider.
- Shadow Economies Around the World: What Do We Know? Friedrich Schneider, Robert Klinglmair, March 2004. Institute for the Study of Labour, IZA DP No.1043
https: http://ftp.iza.org/dp1043.pdf
- How import substitution is transforming the African manufacturing industry.
https://www.tradefinanceglobal.com/posts/how-import-substitution-is-transforming-the-african-manufacturing-industry/
- On Import Substitution in Nigeria, N. OGBONNA. First published: September 1976
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.1976.tb00487.x
- Agriculture: Coscharis Farms Inaugurates 120, 000 MT/ Rice Mill In Anambra State
Crass Prorogation & Dissolution of Parliament Has Real-World Consequences – Olusegun Ehinfun
By Olusegun Ehinfun
The recent prorogation of Parliament in the UK by Prime Minister Boris Johnson has immediate real-life consequences in the ‘real world’. A nakedly political attempt at preventing MPs from blocking a calamitous ‘No-Deal/ WTO Brexit’ was remarkably slapped down, as unconstitutional, in a historic 11- 0 Supreme Court judgement, read out in September by Lady Justice Hale. This is despite Johnson justifying such extant actions by stretching the limits of the unwritten (uncodified) British Constitution. Had there been a codified Constitution in place, Johnson would have been, arguably, unable to ride roughshod over the British System, currently guided by norms, precedents, practices and conventions. Since Brexiteers usually mime “Parliament is Sovereign”, “Take Back Control”, especially in the lead up to the 2016 Brexit Referendum, it is clear – as evinced in the Supreme Court judgement- to all that in the UK, Parliament is still sovereign.
According to Christoph Gusy, Professor of constitutional history at the University of Bielefeld “Johnson’s move would be ‘unthinkable’ in Germany”.1 In Germany, the Bundestag, the country’s equivalent of the House of Commons, “controls the government, and not the other way round.” “What Johnson is doing in the UK would turn the constitutional relationship in Germany completely upside down,” Gusy told DW. The question ‘Who is sovereign?’ is effectively answered by Article 39, Paragraph 3 of the Basic (German) Law: “The Bundestag shall determine when its sessions shall be adjourned and resumed.”
There are two countries (Poland and Peru) where, perhaps, the dissolution of Parliament in the UK- hitherto a legally justifiable legal device in some legitimate instances – might have real-life consequences. The leaders might have been slightly emboldened, perhaps by this brazen action. It must be noted, however, that correlation does not necessarily imply causation.We would have to wait for the gears of history to grind a little bit longer to be definitive on this.
In Poland, just like Boris Johnson, President Andrzej Duda dissolved the Polish parliament, apparently giving a supposedly valid reason. That of calling early elections. Not that he wasn’t within his rights to do this, akin to Johnson’s situation. However, the purpose of the abrupt dissolution and calling for elections on October 13 is being contested by the opposition and some political observers. The political situation in Poland is analogous to divided ‘Brexit Britain’ and perhaps even more divided than ‘Red States Vs. Blue States’ in Trump’s hyper-partisan America. Some believe the fault-lines in Poland is more divisive than in ‘Trump’s America’ and ‘Boris’ Brexit Britain ‘.
According to “Zuzanna, who lives in the U.S., said she hadn’t visited her family during her last trip to Poland, thanks to disagreements over women’s rights. Even while abroad, they’d argued over Polish politics on Facebook. “[The situation in Poland] is much worse than in the U.S. because here the minorities have ‘tasted’ their rights, respect and they know they can demand them,” 2 she said. It is now becoming clear that Prorogation-like tactics, in the Polish President’s case a pseudo-valid dissolution of Parliament was the ‘go-to device’ or the get-out trump card. Not a good sign for a fledgling democracy, that was at certain junctions held up as a beacon of democratic values, by Western governments. Now fast evolving into a populist democracy with alleged autocratic tendencies by the Law and Justice Party (FiS), in the eyes of its critics in the European Union (EU), UK & US (pre-Trump).
Another worrying example of this populist and perhaps ‘autocratic’ tendencies, is the recent dissolution of Parliament by the Peruvian President, Martin Vizcarra. Supposedly, to stamp out corruption. A very popular decision, as thousands of citizens have demonstrated on the streets of Lima, the Andean Country’s capital, in support of the President. The Vice President Mercedes Araoz, purportedly appointed by his opposition in Parliament has resigned, further strengthening the President’s hand in his face-off with the Peruvian Congressmen. They had apparently voted to suspend him because he opposed the appointment of Senior judges into the Constitutional court. He wants to conduct a root and branch reform of the entire political process. This became necessary in the aftermath of the Carwash/ Oderbrecht Scandal which ultimately led to the fall of his predecessor, Pedro Pablo Kuczyynski and that has affected the upper echelons of a lot of South American Countries.
Although, laudable and admirable as President Vizcarra’s reforms appear to be, his opponents allege that he has been overbearing and near-autocratic in the manner of the implementation of his reforms. It may well be that they (Congressmen) might be implicated in the impending reforms, however President Vizcarra must work within the ambits, spirit and the letter of the law. If the philosophical norms and conventions of separation of powers, as espoused by Baron De Montesquieu, embedded in most democratic cultures today, are to be respected in its entirety. Then Vizcarra must be judicious and seen to be just in his affectations of interest, perhaps even in the eyes of his opposition, towards ridding the Andean nation of structural and embedded corruption in its political, judicial and socio-economic systems.
The great concern is that having seen the ascendance of so-called “Illiberal Democracies” and “Strongmen Politics” from Victor Orban’s Hungary, Erdogan’s Turkey, Netanyahu’s Israel, Trump’s Divisive America, Boris’ Brexit UK shambles, Duda’s Autocratic mien in Poland to endemic patronage & corruption in Romania, Albania, all manner of Putin-Wannabes in the Caucasus countries of the former Soviet Republics. Eons back no one would have believed that the hitherto solid, mature and advanced democracies of the Western world would be somehow susceptible to the apparent erosion of democratic norms, both in spirit and progressively in its letter. The needless prorogation by Boris Johnson has ensured that in addition to the expansionary tide sweeping up a previously stable body of laws, conventions, norms and codes in the UK. It has also injected into the body-polity a form of cataclysmic peroration, the likes of which we have never seen before in most mature democracies. Ditto for Trump! His problem. The US Constitution is codified.
Olusegun Ehinfun is a management consultant with Global Business Dynamics Consultancy and can be reached on @globalbizdynam1 and olusegunehinfun@globalbusinessdynamics.com
Sources:
Updated 10/1/19,
1. Suspending parliament: Why it couldn’t happen in German
https://www.dw.com/en/suspending-parliament-why-it-couldnt-happen-in-germany/a-50218795
2. In Poland, politics cuts across the dinner table
Divisions deepen as the country heads to the polls on October 13.By ZOSIA WANAT
https://www.politico.eu/article/politics-across-the-dinner-table-poland/
3. Peru Shuts Congress, Triggers a Constitutional Crisis, By John Quigley, 2 October 2019, 06:48 BST
An Analysis of the 2019 Nigerian General Elections – Which Way Nigeria? – Olusegun S. Ehinfun
“In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt
In Nigerian political terms, it is arguable that, the reverse usually is the case on things happening as they ought to across the spectrum of socio-economic, political and geo-strategic areas in Africa’s biggest democracy. The moment the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the elections umpire in Nigeria, approved 91 new and existing political parties as the main participants for the 2019 general elections, it was viewed as a good omen, a welcome relief to most Nigerian voters. One of the more impressive and positive aspects of the 23rd February 2019 Presidential, Senatorial and National Assembly elections was the participation of a coterie of relatively ‘young’ candidates. It is almost a norm that in Nigerian politics, knocking 50 is considered ‘young’- go figure.
This meant a larger number of political aspirants (73 Presidential aspirants), for the first time, were drawn from a wider range of the professional classes. All vying for offices of state either for President, Senator, Governor, and National/State Houses of Assembly positions in the 2019 general elections. This was partly a direct consequence of the passage of the ‘Not Too Young to Rule Law’ in the Nigerian National Assembly on May 31, 2018.
According to INEC, the Winner of the Presidential election is President Muhammadu Buhari (All Peoples Congress – APC), while the main Challenger (former Vice President) Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has filed papers to challenge the outcome of the elections. Buhari got re-elected with 56% of the votes, garnering 15.2 million votes from Nigerians, while Abubakar got 11.3 million votes. In the Senate elections, the ruling party won 61 seats and the Peoples Democratic Party won 39 seats.
Source: Channels Television
The ‘Not too Young to rule’ law is a positive development in Nigerian politics, its merits became apparent during the election campaigns, as it engendered a diversity in participation of ‘young’ political candidates, and the emergence of qualified and experienced female political aspirants. The nomination of the most prominent of the female Presidential candidates: Dr. Obiageli Ezekwesili, a former Vice-President of the World Bank, as the Presidential Candidate of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) and the nomination of two Vice-Presidential candidates as running mates (more on this later) to the Presidential candidates of the Young Progressive Party (YPP) Dr. Kingsley Moghalu and Alliance for a New Nigeria (ANN) Mr. Fela Durotoye. A first in Nigeria’s history.
Possibly an epochal event, which might lead the way for millions of young girls, perhaps looking to politics and higher office, in future, as a veritable career choice. A noteworthy positive evolution in the elections is that 8 out of the 73 presidential candidates were women, also a first. Ezekwesili is also one of the co-founders/conveners of the Bring Back Our Girls (BBOG) movement, the civil rights group that campaigns for the return of the Chibok and Dapchi schoolgirls kidnapped by ISIS-linked terrorist group, Boko Haram, in North-eastern Nigeria.
Dr. Obiageli Ezekwesili
Source: Dailypost.ng
Impending Female/ Youth-quake
Ultimately the most galvanising effect of the ‘Not too young rule law’, as a new norm, was its culmination in the fielding of a more diverse field of women candidates in the election campaigns. The significance of this year’s election is not just in the emergence of ‘young’ political candidates, but the participation and election of qualified and experienced female political aspirants coming through the party selection process. Women actively participated in this run of elections, however the outcomes in terms of winning elections was not as salutary, as expected. Due largely to embedded cultural and institutional barriers that would take years to breakdown.
One of the surprises during the senatorial election was the election of Senator Aisha Binani, who surprisingly won her senate election in the stronghold (Adamawa North-East) of the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, defeating more experienced male politicians. She is going to be the only female senator from the north. There appears to be a shifting of the tectonic plates in Nigerian politics. Just as an earthquake strikes without warning, perhaps, in years to come, the collection of smaller, relatively new and fledgling political parties could crash the party.
Although, they (the youths and women candidates) were unable to break the stranglehold of the duopoly that is the two main political parties. The ruling All People’s Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Two lessons are potentially critical hereon, the increasing awareness and participation voters of the younger generation, who represents the largest demography of the electorate, and the active mobilisation and participation of more female politicians in the Nigerian body-polity.
The baggage of Nigerian politics has always been its riven politics, with inter and intra ethnic differences and disagreements superimposed upon the political scene that is devoid of a precise, overarching ideology, mores and values. This is a herculean challenge for the young and upcoming politicians who hope to look beyond such differences in their politics and would rather focus on ideals and party ideology that resolve the challenges facing the country.
According to the United Nations, Nigeria has one of the lowest rates of female participation in politics. In a country where women are 49.5% of the population, the welcome nomination of two young Vice-Presidential candidates like Mrs Umma Getso of the Young Progressive Party (YPP) and Hajiya Khadijah Abdullahi Iya Alliance for a New Nigeria (ANN) is a step in the right direction and a first in Nigeria’s history. In Socio-economic and political terms, Nigeria is a deeply patriarchal society rooted in backward, anachronistic and cultural inertia with regard to women’s participation in politics.
Although, there had been female Presidential aspirants in the past: Mrs. Sarah Jubril being the first ever female Presidential candidate; Professor Oluremi Sonaiya was the only female Presidential candidate in the 2015 Presidential elections. Historically, Nigeria’s character (pre-independence) had been shaped by tough, competent and legendary paramount women rulers: Queen Idia, the first Queen Mother (Iyoba) of the ancient Benin Kingdom; Queen Amina of Zaria (a warrior Queen of the ancient Zazzau city-state) and Queen Luwoo, the first and only Ooni of the ancient Ife Kingdom, once the paramount sovereign of Yorubaland. Even the United States of America has not had a female Vice President yet.
Mrs. Umma Getso
Source: Dailypost.ng 
Hajiya Khadijah Abdullahi Iya
Source: Informationnigeria.com
Mrs Aisha Binani
Source: leadership.ng
New Generation (New Blood)
During the 2019 general elections, the, long-suffering Nigerian voting public saw the possibilities that an infusion of ‘new blood’ could bring in the forms of vigorous debates online, via television, numerous campaigns/outreaches and vibrant discourse, especially on social media. Primarily, this occurred via twitter posts, tweets, retweets, Instagram stories and memes, Facebook videos, gifs and posts, WhatsApp message groups, the sharing of YouTube videos, blogs on Medium, Facebook groups.
And the ubiquitous digital newspapers, online magazines that has infused the Nigerian online media scene with a verve, vibrancy and intensity never before seen. Without doubt the outreaches and advocacy online were also accompanied by more sinister reductive campaigns, especially the new scourge of online political campaigns- ‘Fake news’.
Which was quite enervating, because it took well-trained, starry-eyed and experienced political watchers to sort out the chafe from the wheat. This pre-election, largely online, shuffle of activities almost eclipsed the various other rambunctious, festive-like party campaigns, rallies which is usually the preferred mode of campaigning for the two main political parties- All Peoples Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The political eco-system is one that glorifies organisational mediocrity, promotes monied politicians (moneybags), crony capitalists, inept bureaucrats, political jobbers who are world-class experts in ‘godfartherism’, elevates ethno-religious considerations above party ideology (if any) and the common good. A political class that celebrates wanton opulence, usually amassed through corruption, political patronage and economic rent-seeking, with scant regard for the welfare of the average Joe.
A file photo of PCP presidential candidate, Nicolas Felix.
Source: Channels Television
Dark Horse ‘New Blood’ Comes Third
The most perplexing and perhaps positive aspect of the election is the unlikely emergence of an unknown Presidential candidate in third place-a dark horse. Felix Nicolas of the Peoples Coalition Party (PCP) polled more votes than all his co-contenders, except those of the ruling APC and the main opposition PDP, who were the two principal frontrunners in the contest. He scored a total of 110,196 votes to come third in the election. Some observers feel he managed to do better against opponents with a huge following and greater name recognition amongst the youth, only because of a quirk of the elections voting/ballot process mechanics (ballot positioning).
Where his party logo was placed directly above those of the opposition (PDP), as they were arranged in alphabetical order and the colours of the logo of the PCP was identical to that of the PDP directly below it. Still, it is no mean feat to have beaten the ex-Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) – Obadiah Mailafia of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) – into fourth place and John Gbor from the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). Both well-established parties polled 97,874 and 66,851 votes respectively.
According to political analysts, Nicolas’ performance in the election may have put an end to the incessant debates about the most popular of the relatively ‘young’ Presidential aspirants in the race. Particularly, among the trio of Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress (AAC), Olufela Durotoye of the Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN), and the Young Progressive Party (YPP) candidate, Professor Kingsley Mogalu.
Omoyele Sowore
Source: Guardian.ng 
Olufela Durotoye
Source:gofundme.com
Kingsley Mogalu
Source: GlobalSource Partners
New Blood, Old Challenges
The youths of Nigeria desire to see their country develop, become more democratic and see the living conditions improve. As the society is fragmented by inequality and poverty, the two main political parties had failed to convince a growing electorate, who are switched off from politics, of their ability to ensure transformative change. They are young, tech savvy, and progressive voters who are looking to have a break from the past. Influence (money bag) and old-school politics, have become unpalatable to the young. However, there is no single party at the moment that can whole-heartedly command their unvarnished support.
The 73 Presidential aspirants who vigorously, passionately and with a sense of civic duty contested the 2019 elections in order to challenge the two status quo parties were also bedevilled with organisational challenges. The so-called ‘new blood’ tried to forge a common front, under the political grouping called the ‘Third Force’ (there is another grouping of elder politicians under the banner of the Coalition of United Political Parties, CUPP, also calls itself ‘The Third Force’), some months before the commencement of elections.
About 20 Presidential candidates tried to adopt a consensus candidate, one was ostensibly selected. However, shortly after the ‘election’/’selection’ process was agreed, there were disagreements as two Presidential aspirants refused to endorse the eventual consensus candidate. Thereby, ensuring that the so-called ‘new blood’ also tripped over the age-old political ‘banana peel’ in African politics – ego. This was self-evident due to their propensity for ‘self-aggrandisement’, coupled with an inability to think beyond the (present) narrow selfish interests, which has been the bane of Nigerian political life. Millions of Nigerian youths were actually looking for good reasons to jettison the two dominant political parties (APC, PDP).
However, the non-emergence of a consensus presidential candidate and the short-lived tenure of the ‘Third Force’ (as a credible political force) dashed the hopes of voters between the age-range 18-45, the largest demographic amongst the electorate. More than half of registered voters were under the age of 35 and currently, more than 40% of Nigeria’s population of 196 million people is under the age of 14. They would be pivotal to victory in subsequent elections for any party that gets its act together. However, potentially, there is a silver lining for any new party that can present and project a visionary electoral compact to this slice of voters.
A laser focus on three key areas is critical for any ambitious and new party: job creation, poverty reduction and a massive investment drive in education (early education, primary, secondary and tertiary – especially vocational) would be a good starting point. There is a gap for any political party that is able to focus on presenting an appreciable and sustainable development set of programmes coupled with strategies for poverty alleviation that will benefit citizens.
Areas to focus on within the real economy include employment and wage growth, low inflation and the long overdue overhaul of the critical sectors of the economy – power, agriculture, education, housing and urban development, science & technology, creatives and the arts. This would be a herculean task for any one party, and efforts should begin early on voter: education, canvassing, sensitisation and mobilisation right across the 6 geo-political regions of the country. This sort of focus would engender (even ennoble) a sense of ownership amongst the young, creating the needed ‘buy-in’ to consolidate the votes and loyalty of such a vital voting bloc, ready for a message of change they could believe in.
All that is needed is the distillation of such credible, potent policies into a simple, believable and coherent message. The break from the past needed in Nigerian politics is analogous to the recent general elections in Thailand, where a tech-savvy youth demographic has decided to pit its tent with the ‘Future Forward’ party. A new party that has captured the imagination of the youth, who are clearly exasperated with the two leading power centres in Thailand; the military junta and the Phew-Thai party of ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawat.
Banky W – singer and actor Olubankole Wellington
Ordinarily, it is almost a misnomer to see an entertainer take the deep dive into the murky, diabolical and near-dystopic arena of politics in Nigeria. One such entertainer is Olubankole Wellington, stage name Banky W, who stood for a seat in the House of Representatives, in the politically tough Eti-Osa constituency in Lagos state for the Modern Democratic Party (MDP). A party he founded to fight for the seat. He ultimately lost. However, he did win the hearts and admiration of a wide spectrum of Nigerians (young and old) and remarkably win at two polling units within the Eti-Osa district, especially one unit where the Vice-President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo voted.
According to the BBC, ‘He posted on social media after the poll: “I hope we look back at what we accomplished in just three months, and it shows us what we can do with the next four years. I hope we realise that winning some areas in Eti-Osa… is proof that we can do this anywhere.’ He signed off, preternaturally, for a social media adept millennial, and public personality:
Image copyright: GETTY IMAGES
The End? No. The Beginning. #MDP #StrongerTogether #BankOnBanky
a)
Image source: BBC
b)
Image source: BBC
Negative Outcomes:
Organisational Incompetence and Violence
It must be said that in spite of the well-meaning and lofty aims of the Independent National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (INEC), of organising free and fair elections on schedule, it has fallen short of the standards set during the last set of Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate and House of Assembly elections in 2015.
Which has usually been the high watermark for every Presidential, Senatorial and House of Assembly elections – normally organised in stages- a week apart – due to the enormous logistical challenges. Then international observers from the European Union (EU) and African Union (AU), adjudged it to be the most free and fair elections, since Nigeria returned to multi-party democracy in 1999.
Firstly, the 35% voter turnout in 2019 is drastically down from the 44% in the 2015 presidential elections and worse than the 54% turnout in 2011. To be fair to INEC, it is no mean feat organising the largest elections in Africa, for over 85 million registered Nigerian voters. More so, the introduction of Private Voter Cards (PVCs), a system of biometric identification of citizens to cut down on fraud, incidences of voting impersonation and towards ensuring that the integrity of the voting process is maintained.
This, for all intents and purposes, is progress in the annals of the elections process in Nigeria. However, the criticism by most Nigerians and the AU, EU and Commonwealth election observers is well deserved. INEC had four years to hone the PVC system, working out the kinks and intricacies of a new technology and just showing minimum demonstrable competence to Nigerians. For most Nigerians, this was not a big ask given the tens of billions of Naira ($11 billion USD) spent on the conduct of the elections .
During the Presidential, Senatorial and House of Assembly elections on the 23rd of February 2019 scores of PVC card readers broke down in certain parts of the country. Thankfully, not on the scale that would have materially and dramatically altered the electoral outcomes of both major parties- the opposition party (Peoples’ Democratic Party – PDP) and the ruling (All Peoples Congress- APC). The only seeming silver lining in the cloud, was evident during the announcements of the state-by-state results at the collation centre in Abuja.
Where Professor Mahmood Yakubu (the Chairman of INEC) appeared to be transparent, even-handed, and fair during the announcement of results, receiving the various complaints and protestations of respective political party agents with candour and a calm demeanour; promising swift action and directing INEC state officials to address whatever issues that are outstanding promptly.
Also, the violence that preceded the elections (and consequently after) specifically in Kajuru local government in Kaduna state (North-Central Nigeria) and the elections violence, ballot snatching in parts of Lagos, Rivers and Kano state were downright shameful. The alleged participation and interventions of the military in Rivers state led to the postponement of elections. The alleged voter intimidation by a Deputy-Governor in Kano State was a new low in Nigerian politics.
It was widely reported in the media that upon being arrested by the state’s Police Chief (a first, unheard of development), he had to be let go because of the immunity from prosecution enjoyed by state Governors and other political office holders in Nigeria. Although, an explanation was given that he was apparently saved from political thugs and contrary to reports, he was not arrested.
Optimism – No Substitute for Planning and Execution
The attitude that best describes the spectacle of national morass, epitomised by lugubrious overconfidence in Nigeria, can be euphemistically distilled, perhaps, sociologically into the awkward throwaway phrase: ‘e go better’. Nigerians are an optimistic people, by nature, usually based and anchored on a variety of factors; a surfeit that includes: religious beliefs, cultural affirmations, reinforcements and the infinite self-confidence and incredible self-belief (and there is a lot of that with Nigerians) that providence somehow, somewhat will eventually smile ‘upon us’ and ‘we shall overcome (both individually and collectively).
Laudable, commendable even. However, this should not become a substitute for adequate planning, effective & efficient staffing, training of permanent and ad-hoc staff and volunteers. Coupled with proficient execution and implementation of such plans on the tactical, strategic and organisational culture level. In a manner that bespeaks confidence and ensures that the integrity of the election process is not only just seen to adhere to the ‘spirit’, but also the ‘letter’ of the electoral laws and codified procedures or processes.
In the course of the re-run of some of the elections, called a Supplementary Elections on the 23rd of March, in a town called Das, Bauchi state (North-Eastern Nigeria), INEC officials were supported by women voters who chased away a number of hoodlums sent by some politicians to disrupt and rig on behalf of their candidates. It must be said that across the country, the individual local staff of INEC at local and state government levels performed admirably in the face of thuggish behaviours by unscrupulous politicians and their agents.
Professor Mahmood Yakubu, the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) disclosed that about 72 million Nigerians registered to pick up their PVC voter cards, out of the approximately 82 million registered voters. A voting median average of about 40 – 50 million voters was expected. The cumulative total votes cast for the presidential election stood at 27,324,583 valid votes.
A real let-down, representing a drastic fall from the 28,587,564 valid votes recorded in the 2015 general election. This is in spite of having registered just 69,720,350 registered voters. The fall in voter participation could be blamed on the one-week election delay, this is despite similar delays occurring 2011 and 2015. The parlous state of voter participation is underscored by the fact for every 100 Nigerian who picked up their PVCs, only 35 voted in this election.
Therefore, the question to be posed: Is the Nigerian voter losing interest in politics altogether? This should be a worrisome trend for the Nigerian state and the elections regulator, INEC. A nation-state’s most sacred duty to its populace must be at best, minimum competence in the organisation and delivery of elections, such that it elevates the civic consciousness of the voting public. Who, in droves and, out of a sense of duty, waited for hours (in-line) to fulfil one of the most pivotal civic actions a democracy can ever bestow on a people: that of an engaged citizen-voter. Perhaps, the most important hallmark of this is epitomised by exercising that right in the voting booth.
There is also the need for a clear process (tightening of election procedures) and adequate protection of INEC officers, so that they can report via a whistle blower mechanism, indiscipline or incidences of corruption (vote-buying and inducements) of some election officials. There have been reports where INEC officials have had to declare results “under duress”. This is unacceptable. There has to be avenues for them to report fraud and be protected if necessary.
Positive Outcomes:
The Demystification of the ‘Power of Incumbency’ & ‘Godfatherism’
The following senate hopefuls all lost their races: Senate President, Bukola Saraki (PDP-Kwara Central), Former Delta State Governor Uduaghan (PDP-Delta), Governor Abiola Ajimobi (APC – Oyo Central), Senator Godswill Akpabio (APC – Akwa Ibom North-West). All whom, at one time or the other, were viewed as having the ‘Power of Incumbency’.
This is a situation where existing office holders are able, either through patronage and being in control of political party machinery, to ensure a candidate of their choice or they themselves are returned into office almost, always as a sure bet. A positive development in an election process that is prone to being gamed and susceptible to rampant rigging by politicians. Either through devious ballot box stuffing, inducements of local / state government election officials. If this trend continues, progressively, in subsequent elections, perhaps slowly we might be seeing the erosion of the much-fangled ‘power of incumbency’, which is the bane of Nigerian politics.
Another positive development is the diminution in the power of so-called “godfathers”, whose stock-in-trade is to usually to deploy loads of money and massive amounts of influence. Either to win support for their underlings or preferred candidates in elections. Professional defectors, another ‘elite’ class of politicians, who normally switch sides between the two main parties ahead of the polls, somehow-thankfully- did badly in 2019.
Bukola Saraki – Nigeria Senate president
Image copyright AFP
The surprise defeat of Nigeria’s third-most powerful politician, Senate President Bukola Saraki. Surprising because he was the campaign manager for the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). It was implicitly assumed by intrepid political watchers that his re-lection would be relatively easy. It is well known that the Senate President and the president were not on the best of terms throughout the first 4-years of his term. He is thought to have initiated an assets-declaration corruption inquiry against him in the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) court.
Prior to the commencement of the elections, the Supreme Court cleared Saraki of the charges last July. Consequently, in August he promptly defected from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Ultimately, he lost to the APC’s Ibrahim Oloriegbe, thus putting an end to the almost half a century of political dominance of the “Saraki dynasty” (stretching back to the time his father was the supremo) in the Northwest state’s politics.
This was largely because of the general perception of neglect by constituents and an absence of meaningful development within Kwara state. Culminating in the emergence of an organic grassroots protest called the “O to Ge” movement, meaning “Enough is Enough” in the local Yoruba language. Campaigning against his slate/platform, candidacy and all the state-wide candidates he personally endorsed and, in some cases sponsored, effectively defeating them.
Rabiu Kwankwaso – political godfather, Kano
Source: BBC
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is a former Defence minister and a current senator, also a two-time governor of the northern state of Kano. In spite of the fact that he was not standing again for re-election, however as a ‘certified’ godfather or ‘kingpin’ (in Nigerian parlance) it was supposed to be a home run for all the candidates he backed as a political godfather. His princelings ultimately lost their seats.
A prominent political personality since first becoming Governor of the most populous Nigerian state-Kano state. For over two decades, he towered over local politics with the backing of his brand of grassroots politics; the Kwankwasiyya political fan club. With a fairly huge support base not only in Kano but in other parts of northern Nigeria. This may be his last rodeo though, having lost his battle to become PDP’s Presidential flagbearer to ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
Godswill Akpabio – Senator, Akwa Ibom North-West
Source: BBC
Godswill Akpabio is a two-term ex-Governor and one of the so-called political ‘moneybags’/ ‘godfathers’ in Akwa Ibom state, an oil-producing state (there are 5 others). Surprisingly, the powerful politician lost his seat to the candidate of the opposing PDP- Chris Ekpenyong. A sad culmination of an embittered, polemic campaign with accusations of rigging, vote tampering and ballot stuffing (the usual shenanigans in Nigerian politics). It is unfortunately par of the course, with his ‘crushing defeat’ having its antecedents in the dispute with his “political godson”, Emmanuel Udom the Akwa Ibom state governor. The irony, of course, is that Udom was Akpabio’s hand-picked successor.
This forced the 56-year-old to defect to the APC, but it was a tactic that has seen him fall flat on his face – and the PDP has retained all the seats contested in the southern state. Ultimately, Mr Udom went on to retain the governorship of the state during the 9 March gubernatorial polls.
How Buhari Won a 2nd Term
Although, he has maintained an austere and almost incorruptible public image – as a dour, if not dull incorruptible disciplinarian in the minds of some Nigerians. In part, based on his previous stint as a military Head-of-State for all of 20-months between 1984 and 1986. He was part of a duo with his then deputy – Major General Tunde Idiagbon- the public face and enforcer of his short-lived military junta. https://bit.ly/2U26ra1
This prior experience also somehow cemented Buhari’s reputation as an anti-democrat, in the eyes of some others, because he locked up politicians in prison without due process. A perception he has tried to shed, having run for the presidency on three occasions before winning in 2015. Some, a significant part of the country, mostly in the South-East, South-South and the South-West view him as tribalist (perhaps unfairly) who often skews important Presidential and Federal political appointments to mostly the members of his tribe – the Hausa-Fulani in the Northern parts of the country.
He also suffers from a perception gap in parts of the North Central region (mainly in the ‘Middle-belt’ states of Plateau and Benue) where he is viewed with suspicion, because of his inability to solve the incessant conflicts between indigent local farmers and the foraging nomadic Hausa-Fulani herdsmen. Who migrate southwards unto farmlands, due to drought conditions, in search of water sources for their cattle herds.
During the campaign season, in spite of his perceived ill-health, he travelled round the country. Some analysts believed his key asset was his running mate, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, a popular pastor from the south-western part of the country. He has largely been able to stay in power due to his popularity amongst the urban and rural poor of northern Nigeria, known as the “talakawa” (in the Hausa language). And a critical, almost byzantine electoral pact with powerful politicians (especially an alliance of ‘strategic convenience’, perhaps interests, with ex-Senator Bola Tinubu- a former two-term Governor of Lagos State) from the Southwestern part of the country.
This was in spite of opposition to Buhari from some of the largest Yoruba socio-cultural umbrella organisations and power centres like: Afenifere, the Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE) and former President Olusegun Obasanjo. The former having won the respect and admiration from many Nigerians for opposing and fighting General Sani Abacha’s military dictatorship. However, their political influence (including Obasanjo’s) in the South-west has been diminished and ultimately usurped by the deft political manoeuvrings of Tinubu. Who led the six southwestern Alliance for Democracy (AD) party state governors to form a political and electoral pact with Buhari’s Congress of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP), under which he lost three Presidential elections (2003,2007,2011), to ultimately form the All People’s Congress (APC).
This was all prior to the 2015 General elections, which led to the defeat of former President Goodluck Jonathan (the first in Africa where an opposition party defeated an incumbent ruling party, followed on by a smooth transition of power). This exemplary and unusual admission of defeat and eventual smooth transfer of power earned Jonathan praise abroad and admiration by most Nigerians. His government and party (PDP) had a reputation for corruption. This was due largely to the perception of its mismanagement of the proceeds from the oil windfall accrued during President Olusegun Obasanjo’s and late President Musa Yar’Adua’s tenure. In the last election, Buhari’s nationwide appeal was enhanced by the backing of prominent defectors from the then governing People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Source: https://www.thecable.ng/
Trader Moni
Trader Moni is an initiative of the Federal Government aimed at funding Micro, Small & Medium enterprises (MSMEs) in an effort to encourage traders and small businesses to grow. These loans are provided to market women, artisanal small scale: traders, young entrepreneurs and agricultural farmers. The criticism by the opposition, PDP, is that it is a short term, insufficient source of funds and branded as a bribe of some sorts, which was an unsustainable means of distribution of wealth. Also, some traders complained that the amounts (Between N5,000 – N50,000/$14USD – $139USD) were not large enough as working capital to be able to run their businesses effectively and that the interest rates chargeable on the loans were too high.
Subsidies
The reversal of the government’s policies of removing subsidies on petroleum market products may have stanched the exodus of grassroot support for Buhari’s government. This decision was an effort to plug the leakages inherent in the petroleum sector – which is the single largest revenue generator for the Federal government. Nigeria, being the sixth largest producer of oil globally, has an inefficient production and full spectrum supply chain system.
From oil exploration, to the distribution of profits between the state oil company (NNPC) and the oil majors (Shell, ENI/Agip, Total etc), to the inefficient pricing structure whereby petroleum marketers are paid to import petroleum products due largely to the sub-optimal capacity of the nation’s four moribund refineries. Inefficiencies on importation of petroleum products creates perverse incentives for importation, as importers try to game the system. The government (every government ) has had to subsidise the retail price of petroleum products in order for high prices not to impact negatively on the discretionary income of most Nigerians.
However, such subsidies are inefficient and expensive. According to Bismark Rewane, an economist and CEO of Financial Derivatives Company, subsidies are a reverse tax. When a subsidy on petroleum products is implemented, it denies the Federal Government of the needed revenues, thereby leading to an increase in taxes, with the knock-on effect of reducing the disposable/discretionary income of most citizens.
Source: https://www.thecable.ng/
Why Atiku Abubakar Lost
Atiku Abubakar was a former Comptroller of the Nigerian Customs Service (NCS), where it is alleged that he amassed and accumulated much of his wealth, as many a public official and civil servant are wont to do in Nigeria. Allegations Abubakar tries to dispel by insisting that he never accumulated wealth, pointing to the establishment of a successful logistics company (INTELS Ltd.), which did a lot of business in the areas of logistics and forward clearing of cargo at most of Nigeria’s major ports. Prior to the elections, Abubakar was unsuccessful in dispelling, to a great degree, this perceived misconceptions, in some parts (mainly in the Northern and South-western regions) of the country.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), under which Abubakar ran as its flag-bearer, had not sufficiently dealt with its perceived legacy of corruption during the sixteen (1999- 2015) it was in power. This was in spite of the fact that it had implemented various pro-business economic policies popular with the upper middle classes and the international business community. They did not succeed in communicating effectively enough to the plurality of Nigerian voters on how they would eradicate poverty and close the yawning inequality gap in the short term. It must be noted that the PDP projected some measure of competence in the form of neo-liberal economic policies they had intended to implement. However, they were terrible at communicating how it might ‘trickle down’ to the “common masses”.
Another shortcoming for Abubakar, entails the issue of PDP’s planned privatisation drive. There was widespread suspicion of their avowed commitment to the privatisation of inefficient public companies (parastatals), especially the national oil company (Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation – NNPC). During the campaign, he said “I am committed to privatising NNPC, even if they are going to kill me, I will do it”.
As the Vice-President for eight years, he was at the head of the National Privatisation Council (NPC), responsible for the last privatisation drive that was (for ill or good) perceived by most Nigerians as being riddled with mismanagement, corruption and crony capitalism. Whereby, allegedly party big-wigs and crony businessmen were the main beneficiaries of the privatisation and liberalisation drive. It must be said that under Abubakar’s management, there was a genuine liberalisation drive that spurred on the telecoms sector which, impacted positively on productivity, ease of life and doing business within the real sector of the economy.
He made some big promises including a plan to double Nigeria’s economy to $900b (USD) by the year 2025. These effort was a strategic offer to exploit the perceived inherent weaknesses in Buhari’s economic management style during a the course of his first term. The Nigerian economy experienced a contraction when it fell into recession at the beginning of President Buhari’s presidency in 2015 (some economists believe it began at the tail-end of President Jonathan’s presidency, when oil prices crumble). The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been implementing a tight monetary policy programme, emplacing currency restrictions due largely to the low oil prices. This had a knock-on effect of weakening the local currency (Naira) and fuelling inflation. In so doing, Abubakar tried to take advantage of the perceived weakness of the Buahri government’s first term. Buhari is often viewed by Nigerians and the international financial markets as being weak in the areas of economic performance and management. This was due largely to his opposition to the floating of the Naira freely, when currency controls were implemented to stem rampant inflation. At the time, JP Morgan removed Nigeria from its Government Bond Index in late 2015.
Another issue that militated against Abubakar and PDP was the plan to remove subsidies, which was unpopular. He once said: “I have always been an advocate of subsidy removal. It is a policy I intend to continue until we completely eliminate that subsidy”. This was a policy that proved unpopular when the Jonathan administration tried to implement this policy in order to plug the inefficiencies in the full spectrum of oil production and distribution supply chain model. The Buhari administration tried to do the same, however, they inevitably had to roll back the policy. Finally, unresolved corruption allegations by the Justice Department in the US regarding illicit payments to Louisana Congressman William J.Jefferson on the suspicion of bribery allegedly linking Atiku Abubakar (through his wife) when he was Vice-President.
Source: https://www.thecable.ng/
Danger for Buhari’s 2nd Term
Economic Expansion
The Nigerian economy is the largest in Africa and represents 0.47% of the world economy at over £370b. Nigeria’s population is set to grow exponentially, and according to the United Nations, it would overtake the US to become the world’s third largest nation by population, with 387m people. As previously highlighted, Nigeria has a very young population, as more than 40% of its population (196m) are estimated to be under the age of fourteen. This presents an opportunity and a challenge at the same time for Nigerian leaders and policy makers. The opportunity lies in harnessing the dynamism and the entrepreneurial spirit of the young to enable economic expansion. This can be done in two ways: Firstly, by creating the enabling business environment for the growth of dynamic new firms, Micro Small & Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) through: ease in registration of companies, customized tax incentives for new firms, less onerous regulation, soft loans with less restrictive terms, elimination of bureaucratic red-tapes in the civil service that would interface with such dynamic young entrepreneurs. Secondly, the development of critical infrastructures such as accessible and high-speed broadband, power and electricity- which is key and the bane of Nigerian small and large businesses.
According to Bismark Rewane of the FDC, only ten out of the thirty-six states of Nigeria generate economic output within Nigeria. This is sub-optimal, in term of economic performance. This is especially critical because the challenge it presents to policy makers is that large swathes of the country are populated with youth who have no means of gainful employment and opportunity to contribute to the economic activity and development of the country. It is not out of place to hear young graduates of universities complaining about the unavailability of work or high quality jobs. This impacts negatively on the economy as most seek better oppurtunities abroad.
It is also a very young nation with more than 40% of the population of 196 million under the age of 14. And young people are set to play a huge role in this election with more than half of registered voters under the age of 35.
The huge growth presents an opportunity for the country with its entrepreneurial spirit as it could in theory take advantage of the economic dividend that a young dynamic population can bring. This is especially true as the workforce in more developed nations is getting older. But it is also a challenge for policy makers.
Young graduates can frequently be heard complaining that there are not enough high-quality jobs available, and many speak about hoping to leave the country.
Looking at population growth in Africa in general, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo has warned that without proper planning it could become a political catastrophe.
Poverty Eradication
According to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in 2010 60.9% of Nigeria’s population live in “absolute poverty”. It was 54.7% in 2004. According to a new report of the World Poverty Clock, Nigeria overtook India as the country with highest extreme poverty figures. It is meant to miss the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end extreme poverty by the year 2030. The UN highlights 86.9m Nigerians now live in extreme poverty. Representing almost 50% of its estimated 196m population.
Source: Quartz Africa
The NBS report alludes to the fact that relative poverty was most apparent in the north of the country, with Sokoto state’s poverty rate the highest at 86.4%. Aliko Dangote, the richest man in Africa, recently commented on the poverty situation in the Northern parts of Nigeria. He noted that 60% of northerners live in extreme poverty, noting that it was unacceptable for a people with vast arable land for agriculture to be living in poverty.
The billionaire made this comment while speaking at a forum (The Kaduna Economic & Investment Summit – KADINVEST 4.0) to the nineteen northern state governors. He said, “The north must focus on harnessing its massive agricultural potential in terms of both production and processing. No region with such high agricultural potential should be this poor. I think in the next ten years, agriculture can generate more revenue and prosperity than oil if we have the right commitment”. According to Dangote, “it is instructive to know that the 19 northern states, which account for over 54 per cent of the country’s population and 70 per cent of its landmass, collectively generated only 21 per cent of the total sub-national internally generated revenue (IGR) in 2017.
Poverty reduction is a major issue President Buhari would have to grapple with in the next four years. He must come up with actionable plans and policies that must be executed in a manner that makes appreciable impact on the national living standards of all Nigerians across the six geopolitical regions: South East, South-South (with restive communities where oil spills have destroyed its flora and fauna), South-West, North-Central, Northwest and especially in the North-East where the scourge of international terrorism persists, with Islamic State in West Africa (ISWAP- an off-shoot of Boko Haram) and Boko Haram (BH), in its albeit diminished state, wreaking havoc around the Lake Chad regions/countries like Chad and Cameroon.
Boko Haram, ISWAP, Zamfara Banditry
The extreme poverty in Nigeria’s arid north-eastern region ultimately led to the formation of Boko Haram (BHM) Islamist-led terrorist insurgency and recently, its more violent off-shoot – Islamic State in West Africa (ISWAP) which mounted a series of deadly attacks on the Nigerian military and the border town of Ran, prior to the 2019 elections, signified a new and deadlier phase of the Islamist insurgency in the North-east. It is reported that the Nigerian military, saddled with fighting back against this insurgency, appears to inadequately equipped with the armaments and critical intelligence needed to defeat BHM and ISWAP.
Andrew Walker, an analyst and author on Nigeria’s Boko Haram (BHM) insurgency believes the terrorist group usually uses the intermittent breaks in the fighting to strengthen their ranks, regrouping. He avers: “Mr Buhari was able to ride a period of low activity from Boko Haram, which now appears to be coming to an end”. It must be noted that the security challenges faced by Buhari in a second term is not only limited to the insurgency in the North-East.
The natural resource-rich North-western state of Zamfara has also been bedevilled by banditry and kidnappings of citizens, mine workers (mainly from Chinese & indigenous firms) and the sacking of entire towns and villages by brigands, cults and gangs of armed robbers & cattle rustlers is a burgeoning and deadly challenge for the state. With the succession of state Governors unable to keep the peace by providing the needed security to the ordinary citizens of The state.
In the last four years, the Nigerian military has succeeded in limiting the insurgency to the border area of North eastern part of Nigeria, with international support from the government of Chad, Niger Republic, Cameroun, the US, the UK and France. The military was able to free some of the school girls captured from the towns of Chibok and Dapchi, however, some are still in captivity with negotiations on-going to secure their release. The Presidency of Buhari would be judged on its ability/inability to effectively deal with the Boko Haram/ISWAP/Zamfara banditry problems and potentially the restiveness of the burgeoning ‘New Biafra’ movements in the South-Eastern part of Nigeria.
Olusegun Ehinfun is a management consultant with Global Business Dynamics Consultancy and can be reached on @globalbizdynam1 and olusegunehinfun@globalbusinessdynamics.com.
Sources
Five things about Nigeria: The superpower with no power.
BBC Africa
Nigeria election 2019: Big winners and big losers
By Naziru Mikailu BBC Africa, Abuja, 3 March 2019
Is the Nigerian Voter Losing Interest in Politics Altogether?
(TheCable.ng)
Global Business Dynamics 